Cubs will prevail in NL Central
Posted: Saturday, June 20, 2009 2:55 PM
This blog comes to an end today. It started eight years ago, during the Summer of Bonds. Now, my world is changing from baseball to football (new voice of the 49ers), and so it’s a good time for a change.
Talent most often prevails in baseball, thus this season’s NL Central race should be a replay of last year’s tremendous Cubs-Brewers duel. A synopsis of how this race should unfold.
CAN MILWAUKEE’S BULLPEN HOLD THIS PACE? Unlikely. The Brewers are holding form with their hitting, fourth in the NL. Their starting pitching has survived the double hit of the offseason loss of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. But it’s the bullpen that has shocked with a .215 OBA, lowest in the NL by 14 points. It isn’t just closer Trevor Hoffman, but also Mark DiFelice, Todd Coffey, Carlos Villanueva, and funky lefty Mitch Stetter, who form a stout group. How can this group maintain that pace? And when they slip, it looks like the Brewers don’t have enough starting pitching to stop a slide.
HOW DO THE CARDINALS DO IT? No one extracts more from his team than manager Tony La Russa. No one extracts more from his staff than pitching coach Dave Duncan, and here are the Cardinals, the opposite of the Brewers, with the NL’s third best starting pitching. Duncan’s best work has been with Ryan Franklin, a true Lazarus, who has resurfaced as the closer with astonishing success. Can it last? Unless Rick Ankiel and Eric Ryan Ludwick get hot in the second half and approach their 2008 production, the superb Albert Pujols can’t carry the load.
CINCINNATI IS BETTER…and that’s a credit to manager Dusty Baker and general manager Walt Jocketty, a tandem that has finally changed the Reds’ mindset. It should be no surprise to those who know Baker, for that is his forte. What hasn’t fully kicked in is the offense, which is 14th in OPS in the NL. Not enough walks and still unfinished production from Jay Bruce. Joey Votto’s eventual return from an inner ear infection could help. The Reds can pitch as Johnny Cueto is blossoming, and if Edinson Volquez returns for a healthy second half, they may hang in this race longer than expected.
BUT THE CUBS STILL HAVE THE HORSES. How can this team be 13th in runs per game? With its roster, it will eventually score. Doesn’t Alfonso Soriano have to rebound from a horrid offensive first half? Same with Geovany Soto? Aramis Ramirez should be back in July and won’t that help? Assume Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden pitch a full second half, and the rotation looks brilliant. Doesn’t Carlos Marmol have to find his control and won’t that help the bullpen match the best in their division? How can this team lose?
JULY 31. Here’s the wild card, no pun intended. The Cubs have too much invested, and a sale pending, to lose their momentum. After two playoff flops the last two years, they have too much to prove. This group gets no free pass. If general manager Jim Hendry needs help, he makes the trades in late July. Milwaukee struck early last year for CC Sabathia, and it triggered a sequence of moves. I don’t think Hendry lets Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin get the jump this year.
