Federer no lock in French final
Posted: Friday, June 05, 2009 5:18 PM
The French Open has been filled with high drama, and the final act, Sunday’s men’s singles final, could be the culmination of great tennis theater. Roger Federer seeks to complete a career Grand Slam, and in doing so match Pete Sampras’ record for most majors won (14). Robin Soderling, the No. 23 seed and not even on the radar when this major began, seeks to cap his improbable Roland Garros run with a title.
Federer has never played in a major like this, contesting every game rather than dominating. Rather than hovering above the field, allowing no mortal to challenge, he has been engaged in fierce battles, four times playing from behind to overcome opponents, the best of these efforts coming against Juan Martin del Potro 3-6, 7-6 (2), 2-6, 6-1, 6-4 in the semifinals.
The Swiss’ track record this fortnight in Paris makes a prediction for the final difficult. Federer has reached a fourth straight Roland Garros title match, having lost the last three to Rafael Nadal. But it is not Nadal who is awaiting him this time around, but rather Soderling, who is on a career-best run. Federer is hardly performing at his best, yet he plays on Sunday in his 15th final in the last 16 Grand Slam events. Incredibly, he’s also made it to 20 straight semifinals at the majors. We will never again see the likes of such excellence.
Federer’s return game is still a notch below what it was in the past. It’s well above average without a doubt, but too often opponents are coasting through sets without a push from Federer. And that could be a problem on Sunday. No doubt that Federer handles the moment, his two comeback five-set wins show that he can handle the pressure that grew out of Nadal’s early exit. But he will face a man playing superior tennis, the best tennis of his career.
Against Fernando Gonzalez in the semifinals, for two sets Soderling continued the brilliance that got him past Nadal and Nikolay Davydenko. Soderling was playing power clay-court tennis, handling high balls with astounding strength, and hammering wide flat serves to great effect. In essence, Soderling, on the red clay, has forced his opponents out of their game.
Just when Soderling appeared poised to knock out Gonzalez, the Chilean found his serve, and stayed on court long enough to allow Soderling’s level to slip. It was the first sign of weakness shown by the Swede in his last four matches, and the dip allowed Gonzalez to reach the fifth set with a 4-1 lead.
And then from somewhere Soderling found one more push. Inspired by the front-row presence of fellow Swede Bjorn Borg, Soderling played well enough to cut his deficit to 4-2. He pumped a fist at Borg, and proceeded to regain the physical edge. Four more games and Soderling was in his first Grand Slam event final.
SUNDAY’S KEYS:
FATIGUE: Does Soderling have the conditioning to rebound from his long battles with Nadal and Gonzalez as well as David Ferrer in the third round? Federer has also played long matches, but his fitness is unquestioned, and he is accustomed to the two-week grind of a major. Until this fortnight, Soderling had not gotten past the third round of a major.
STAGE FRIGHT: Watch Soderling’s feet in the first set. Nerves often are exposed by footwork. Soderling has moved beautifully at Roland Garros. If he continues to show that in the first set on Sunday, he will have conquered his nerves.
POWER: Can Federer withstand Soderling’s punishing attack? Fair question, it seems, since Nadal used a similar game to take Federer out three years running.
DESTINY: The French Open is the only major Federer has never won. Is the Swiss Master ready for his best chance to win Roland Garros, and earn recognition as the greatest player of all-time?
Is Soderling, who has come out of nowhere in Paris, destined to complete one of the greatest runs ever at a major, beating both Nadal and Federer to win the title?
Sunday will provide the answer, and either way a great story will have been written on the dirt at Roland Garros, one that will go down in French Open lore.
