Early-season trends worth watching
Posted: Saturday, May 09, 2009 9:35 AM
CAN THE YANKEES BEAT THEIR DIVISION FOES AND CAN THEY PITCH?
They are 4-10 against the AL East, just finished a 0-4 home stretch against the teams to beat, and have a pitching staff in disarray.
While CC Sabathia hopes he can repeat 2008, and dismiss a bad April, the Yankees really miss Chien-Ming Wang.
Interesting views on Joba Chamberlain. He struck out 12 Red Sox Tuesday, but lost after surrendering four runs in the first inning. Prominent New York columnists suggest the outing cements Chamberlain’s value as a starter. But his pitch count kept him from finishing the sixth inning while the team’s bullpen continues to stumble in front of closer Mariano Rivera.
CAN TORONTO BE A SPOILER IN THE AL EAST?
We look at the massive injuries to their pitching staff and conclude the Blue Jays can’t sustain the early pace they’ve set to lead the AL East. But their offense is relentless, they are having an MVP-type start from an unexpected source (Aaron Hill), and their ace (Roy Halladay) is strong. General manager J.P. Ricciardi has put together a tough team, one able to withstand injury. It will be intriguing to see how long they can withstand the division Trinity (the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees).
CAN KANSAS CITY SUSTAIN ITS SUCCESS?
Think about what the Royals’ record would be if they didn’t have to start Sidney Ponson or call upon Kyle Farnsworth in relief? That duo has combined for seven of the team’s 12 losses. Zack Greinke will eventually prove human, but Brian Bannister has offered a lift, the team has depth, an excellent closer, and solid lineup in a balanced division.
IS THE POWER OUTAGE REAL?
A list of hitters without a homer yet this season: David Ortiz, Bobby Abreu, James Loney, Russell Martin, and Adrian Beltre. The game has changed, but as we learned with Manny Ramirez, the desire to “beat the system” hasn’t disappeared.
WILL CLEVELAND STAND PAT?
A huge disappointment in the first month, the Indians’ pitching is in shambles. Cliff Lee appears to be right, but Fausto Carmona, the bullpen, and the reclamation projects of Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes are all a disaster.
CAN JOHAN SANTANA BE THE GREATEST FREE AGENT SIGNING OF A STARTER?
Greg Maddux currently holds this honor, but Santana is on track to wrest it away. With any bullpen help, he would have won last year’s NL Cy Young Award. His start this year is sick (4-1. 0.91, 0.91 WHIP, 54 K in 39 IP), and before you attribute any of it to pitcher-friendly Citi Field, Santana’s two road starts have been outstanding.
BUT THE BEST PITCHER OUTSIDE OF GREINKE HAS BEEN DAN HAREN…as his resume (1.84 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 9 BB, and 51 K) belies a 3-3 record that is the result of a putrid offense. And he’s done it in a hitter’s park without Brandon Webb as the lead horse. Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum is raging after a pair of shaky starts in the first week so a terrific three-man race is already developing for the award.
IS MILWAUKEE FOR REAL?
They have survived the Sabathia/Sheets loss better than expected through the first month. Their hitting is as strong as expected, and Yovani Gallardo has answered the call as the team’s new ace. Trevor Hoffman and Carlos Villanueva look strong as the tag-team closers. And their division is open as long as the Cubs hover near .500.
IS RANDY JOHNSON THE LAST 300 GAME WINNER?
The question was posed to me last week and my initial response was to laugh. I’ve been burned by Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina (a sure 300-game if he hadn’t retired), and now Johnson is three wins away. Never assume, I responded. But then I checked the list and was amazed that we won’t see another for many years. Here are the active pitchers with over 160 wins (after Johnson): Jamie Moyer, Andy Pettitte, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and Tim Wakefield.
Unless Moyer defies time in an unprecedented manner, there is no 300-gamer in that group. Down the list is CC Sabathia (118 wins at age 28), but durability questions will always follow him. Best bet among the younger starters: Tim Lincecum (28 wins at age 24.)
FOUR SWINGS:
1. FRIDAY’S CLASSIC HEADLINE. After Mariano Rivera allowed Carl Crawford’s game-winning homer Thursday night, Friday’s New York Daily News back page screamed, “CAN A-ROD PITCH?”
2. THE DL CON game…continues as the Mets have disabled Oliver Perez. The game is simple and transparent: In this era, players with big contracts who struggle cannot be sent to the minors (pride, ego, saving face, etc.).
Starting pitchers who fall on hard times cannot help teams out of the bullpen. So, the safe route has become the DL, baseball’s version of a timeout. I have seen teams use the DL to alleviate roster squeezes for years. One situation involved a veteran player in his final year whose team issued a “friendly” ultimatum when facing a pitching shortage -- accept a DL trip so you can finish the year with us or you’ll be released.
Major League Baseball appears to have no interest in policing this abuse so why not simply list transaction in this manner: The Mets placed Oliver Perez on the 15-day DL with a 9.97 ERA. The Yankees placed Chien-Ming Wang on the 15-day DL with a 34.50 ERA. List the real reason, not a convenient “injury.”
3. INTERESTING CONVERSATION…on Giants’ radio last week about the best hitting pitchers in the National League. Five names mentioned: Carlos Zambrano, Micah Owings, Yovani Gallardo, Jason Marquis, and Matt Cain. Hometown boosterism is understood, but you have to bump Cain for CC Sabathia. Anyway, it’s a worthy topic that is under-discussed.
4. CAN'T FINISH WITHOUT A MANNY RAMIREZ THOUGHT(S)…The ESPN anchor brainlessly exclaims, “What a dark day for baseball” as the suspension is reported.
Several questions: 1) Isn’t it a dark day for Manny? How many of us spend $8 million for a prescription? 2) Did anyone proclaim a dark day for the NFL when Shawne Merriman or Rodney Harrison was suspended? 3) Doesn’t this mean baseball’s system is working, for better or worse?
Let me be clear. Baseball should not celebrate, but neither should it mourn. Many players screamed loudly to their union for a clean sport. And this event proves two things: 1) The sport is getting cleaner and, 2) It has a long road ahead. Too many players believe they can still beat the system. And for fans, it should be crystal clear that NOTHING should be assumed about ANY player in this generation. A sad cloud continues to hover over all, innocents included.
