Rays dig themselves a hole
Posted: Thursday, April 30, 2009 4:48 PM
Is Tampa Bay's 8-14 April a slow start or a portend of a tough summer?
Because the Rays play in the AL East, the question, although premature by most baseball standards, feels legitimate. Entering May, the Rays will have to pass not just the heavyweights (Red Sox/Yankees), but improved Toronto and Baltimore. So, this weekend the Rays hosting a four-gamer with Boston has more of a midseason import.
A look at the Rays, past and present:
Starting pitching: Their strength in 2008 (3.95 ERA, 2nd in AL), it has been a liability this April (4.80 ERA, 8th in AL). Scott Kazmir is battling mechanical problems, and brief optimism disappeared in a bad Wednesday outing against the Twins.
Andy Sonnanstine claims no excuses or problems, but his last start in Oakland was, in his words, "embarrassing." Matt Garza has walked too many batters. James Shields and rookie Jeff Niemann have been steady, but need their partners to rebound.
Hitting: Not their strength in 2008 (9th in AL in runs), they are 10th this year. But lefties are a specific problem -- the Rays are 1-8 against southpaw starters. They have the fourth-most at-bats against lefties and rank 9th in runs. The addition of Pat Burrell (four extra base hits in 20 games) hasn't yet produced the anticipated jolt, but his track record indicates a productive bat will ultimately appear.
Confidence: The Rays began a streak at this point of 2008 that carried them through the summer and into fall. They believed and thus succeeded. It is the same group, with minor tweaks, that has now lost six straight series. So this weekend carries more importance than an early May series deserves. Because the Rays need to win a series, especially against the team they outlasted twice last year. A bad weekend means the Rays play uphill, and it’ll be a steep climb at that, which they never encountered last year.
FIVE SWINGS
1. THE DODGERS…finally go home Thursday after opening with 16 of 22 games on the road. Surviving that stretch with the division lead clearly establishes them as the team to beat in the NL West. A team insider told me this week that "this division (NL West) is really weak." The Dodgers have seen all the teams and most surprising are the struggles in Colorado, highlighted by the two-game benching of Troy Tulowitzki, the team's unchallenged leader. Arizona played 18 of 21 at home and is under .500 without Brandon Webb. San Francisco can pitch, but can't hit, and the Padres worry no one. This is the Dodgers division as long as Manny Ramirez and Chad Billingsley stay healthy.
2. HOW IMPORTANT IS A BENCH? Look at Tuesday's Dodgers-Giants game, and the reserves available to each manager.
DODGERS: Juan Pierre, Mark Loretta, Brad Ausmus, Juan Castro, and Blake DeWitt.
GIANTS: Rich Aurilia, Nate Schierholtz, Juan Uribe, Eugenio Velez, and Steve Holm.
No comparison. In the era of 12-man staffs, the Dodgers have compiled a strong NL bench. The Giants pale by comparison. To the original point, does it matter? Tuesday night, 3-3, bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth. The Giants get one crack with a pinch-hitter. It's Velez, a marginal major-leaguer. A sign there is still little hope in San Francisco.
3. PERSONAL CATCHER. Barry Zito has posted two consecutive strong starts, sparking hope of a long-awaited turnaround. Little noticed has been the lineup change in Zito's games. Second-year player Pablo Sandoval is now the catcher. The pair worked well together late last year, and the arrangement now appears permanent. Problem is the Giants must remove their cleanup hitter, Bengie Molina, to accommodate Zito. There, in a nutshell, is why many managers avoid "personal catchers." Story: When Tom Candiotti pitched for the Dodgers, his starts were Mike Piazza's rest days. The thought was sound. Piazza didn't enjoy catching knuckleballs (who does?) But Candiotti took the mound for each start knowing he was handicapped as the Dodgers best hitter was on the bench.
4. NUMBERS TO LOOK AT FROM WEDNESDAY: Joba Chamberlain was a stud (7 innings pitched, 3 hits, 1 earned run) in besting Detroit. Tigers phenom Rick Porcello was hammered (3.2 innings pitched, 6 hits, 6 earned runs, and 3 walks), and the team must begin thinking of his future.
The astounding Albert Pujols drove in his 26th run of April, and the Cards have jumped on his back, with the added benefit of the NL's best starting pitching. Milwaukee won a 1-0 game over Pittsburgh, but did not use Trevor Hoffman on consecutive days as Carlos Villanueva closed. And what to make of Carlos Marmol of the Cubs, who faced four batters, and walked three (plus one intentional walk) in Arizona?
5. A MUCH NEEDED REBOUND BY FLORIDA…as the Fish win the last two games of a New York series. After an ugly weekend against the Phillies, Florida's bullpen pitched seven scoreless innings over these two games, and ex-Met Matt Lindstrom saved each. By the way, another ex-Met, Heath Bell, has saved eight of San Diego's 11 wins with Duaner Sanchez, yes also an ex-Met, as his setup man. Think it's easier to succeed out of the New York spotlight?
