Has Lincecum done himself harm?
Posted: Thursday, April 16, 2009 4:28 PM
There is slight concern in San Francisco over Tim Lincecum, who has lasted only 8.2 innings in his first two starts.
The first question is physical, one respected blog referenced Lincecum's drop in velocity. I was in Pac Bell Park on opening day when the radar gun registered 95-97 mph on his fastballs to right-handed hitters. This is not a Cole Hamels’ situation in which there is a 5-7mph drop.
What is clear is the loss of command by Lincecum. The pitcher referenced as much after his last start and the numbers confirm it.
Last year, he walked 3.3 batters per nine innings. This year's small sample sees him at 6.5. Last year, he went to 3-0 on five percent of the batters faced and 0-2 on 26 percent. So far this year, the respective numbers are going 3-0 on 11 percent and 0-2 on 17 percent. (I just wanted to prove to the analysts that I do find value in numbers). So there is a window into Lincecum's early struggles, and I emphasize he’s made only two starts.
Unyielding, though, will be the matter of Lincecum's 2008 workload (227 innings and 3,680 pitches, most in the NL). The amounts were senseless, borne mainly out of Lincecum's belief in his father's mechanics, and the Giants' desperation for something to brag about after a fourth straight losing season. Cheerleading fans and media fueled the heavy use of Lincecum despite multiple studies indicating such use is high-risk, low-reward.
But we were told Lincecum is "The Freak," a product of superior mechanics taught by his father to overcome the son's slight build. And, last summer, the proof was in the pitching. Lincecum was strong down the stretch, and made it known at every chance that he wanted to pitch as much as possible.
The short-term payoff was a Cy Young Award, newfound notice as the game's top young pitcher, and the team's ability to sell a product. Everyone involved, though, must hope that this shaky beginning is simply a blip rather than a sign of long-term penalty.
FIVE SWINGS:
1. BARRY ZITO worked out all winter with reliever Brian Wilson, professed a newfound dedication to fitness, and vowed that in 2009 he would have a clear head. In the first inning of his first start, he allowed three runs to the light-hitting Padres. Thankfully, Bruce Bochy indicated he would not subscribe to the "kid gloves" treatment afforded Zito in San Francisco. Bochy, after noting Zito settled down following the bad opening, said, "First innings count."
2. GREAT FACT ABOUT DEFENSE…and its growing influence during this era of change in the game. In 2007, Tampa Bay allowed 944 runs while scoring 782. Last year the Rays allowed 671 runs, but scored 774.
Tampa Bay made the World Series scoring fewer runs than the year before. And its pitching staff had little turnover from 2007 to 2008. Why the dramatic drop in runs allowed, and resultant increase in wins from 67 to 97? Superior defense.
3. DIDN’T WE JUST ENDURE SIX WEEKS OF SPRING TRAINING? Why? Oakland saw Jason Giambi pulled from a weekend game because the man himself said "I had run too much for early in the year. If I had tried to run (on a late-inning hit), my hammys would have been all over the place.”
Nomar Garciaparra replaced Eric Chavez (not a good sign for the A's that Chavez can't stay in the lineup a week into the season), but had to leave a game after one inning with a "tight calf." This is eight days into the season -- you can't make it up!
4. AND YOU ASK WHY TEAMS DON'T ALL EMBRACE THE WBC? Boston placed Daisuke Matsuzaka, who won three WBC games, on the DL citing "arm fatigue." This is the same man who once threw 250 pitches in a high school championship game.
5. THEN THERE IS THE SCHEDULE. It hit me turning on the Mets opener in Citi Field. San Diego played at home Sunday afternoon, and in New York Monday night. Senseless, and worse because the teams had Tuesday off, the "rain day" many teams request to protect their opening day gate. My sadness grows over the callousness of the MLB schedule. Business (television, gate, suites, etc.) trumps all, and I fear it will shorten careers and lives.
