In this blog, surprise in terms of teams does not mean making the playoffs, but rather exceeding expectations and recent performances, and entering September in contention for the postseason.

FLORIDA: No surprise to readers of this space. The rotation is the big reason why I like the Marlins to surprise. Here are the number of 2008 starts for the five arms the Fish are counting on: Ricky Nolasco (32), Josh Johnson (14), Chris Volstad (14), Anibal Sanchez (10), and Andrew Miller (20).

So only one member of Florida’s 2009 rotation pitched a full season in 2008. The rotation is young, but talented, with more upside than any in the National League.

Matt Lindstrom is well equipped to close, although the bullpen has to replace Joe Nelson, an effective setup man who was not re-signed after late-season comments critical of management.

Trading first baseman Mike Jacobs created a series of moves that vastly improved the infield defense, and rookie, Cameron Maybin, is the center fielder.

Last year taught the Marlins the importance of defense and occasional "small ball." If those areas improve, and the starters have health, then the Fish play meaningful September games.

KANSAS CITY: This pick is more of a reach than the Marlins, but the sense here is that the American League Central will be more competitive than strong this year.

For the Royals to make a move over .500, they need former Braves’ starters Horacio Ramirez and Kyle Davies to regain their Atlanta form as strong 4-5 rotation arms.

The Royals are the latest team to gamble on Sidney Ponson's good arm and highly erratic personality. The hope in Kansas City is that right-hander Luke Hochevar, the team’s No. 1 pick in the 2006  draft, arrives in the majors quickly after starting the season at Triple-A.

What the Royals feature is a strong No. 1 starter in Gil Meche (count this blog among the many chastened by Meche's Kansas City performance, silencing the critics of his five-year deal), and outstanding closer in Joakim Soria.

There are questions in the setup roles, especially Kyle Farnsworth, who simply has never shown he can be trusted (check out his home run totals).

To a strong mix of young players (David DeJesus, Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, and  Mike Aviles) the Royals have added Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs.

With Jacobs at first base, Teahen moving to second base and Jose Guillen in right field, the forecast is not for a superb defensive team.

But after years of struggle, the Royals can't ask for everything at once. Under general manager Dayton Moore, they are showing progress -- if only in baby steps. Now they are poised to take their first big boy step, and finish the season with a record of over .500.

FIVE SWINGS:

1.  LET'S START WITH THE GAME IS THIS ERA. Since the advent of Questec, born of good intent, fewer strikes seem to be called. Hitters are more averse than ever to swing early in the count, some blatantly refuse to swing until two strikes. So, here's the result: On opening day in Cincinnati, neither starter could finish the sixth inning.

That’s after six weeks of spring training. But Johan Santana of the Mets threw 99 pitches, and Aaron Harang of the Reds, an insane 114 pitches in five innings. So, more often than ever, middle relievers, the unwashed, unwanted, unproven and unpaid, are the ones who settle games. And Major League Baseball keeps paying starting pitchers outrageous contracts. Does anyone else see the absurdity or am I alone in that regard?

2. THE METS COULDN'T ASK FOR A BETTER OPENER…after their disastrous endings in 2007 and 2008 as they won by one run over the Reds with 3.1 hitless relief innings. And the victory came in the same stadium where Braden Looper blew Pedro Martinez's first start as a Met, and that memory was still fresh when Sean Green, J.J. Putz, and Francisco Rodriguez christened the new Mets’ bullpen by blanking the Reds. Scouts raved about Green's inclusion in the Putz trade, and in the season-opener, Green showed why all the high praise.

3. BIGGEST PITCHING STORY OF OPENING DAY… was Brandon Webb. He was throwing in the low 80s, and left after four innings complaining of right-shoulder stiffness.  Webb has been scratched from his scheduled start Saturday against the Dodgers because of the stiffness.

4. MORE OF BASEBALL'S IMBALANCE…spend big for starters while scrimping for arms in the bullpen. The Yankees paid CC Sabathia a ton, and then after he was knocked out in the fifth inning on opening day, this is the pitching roll call that followed: Albaladejo, Coke, Bruney, and Marte. It's John McEnroe time: "You cannot be serious!"

5. REBOUND YEAR FOR THE TIGERS? Their second game was started by Edwin Jackson, good enough for only three cameo postseason relief appearances with Tampa Bay last season.