About Sounding Off

Ted Robinson of NBCSports.com fires away on what’s making news in Major League Baseball, the National Football League and professional tennis.

Robinson called the play-by-play on NBC's Major League Baseball Game of the Week telecasts from 1986-89. Additionally, he has done play-by-play for the Minnesota Twins, San Francisco Giants, and New York Mets. Since 2000 Robinson has provided play-by-play for NBC Sports on the French Open and Wimbledon. He also previously served in that role at the U.S. Open for USA Network. Robinson is also the play-by-play voice of the San Francisco 49ers on KNBR.



Reds could put heat on Cubs

Posted: Thursday, March 19, 2009 1:09 PM

Hard to see the Cubs as anything other than heavy favorites for a third straight division title (perspective: the Cubs have NEVER won three straight of anything! In fact, since 1940, they had only one stretch of three straight winning seasons, Leo Durocher's 1967-72 run.)

In order, here's my view of the Cubs’ challengers this season:

 

CINCINNATI: If any team can surprise Chicago, it’s Cincinnati, which has the youthful energy, and more importantly, the arms. Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto have the stuff. Now they also have the experience of a full big-league season.

Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are the veteran anchors in the rotation, and Micah Owings, tweaked by longtime Dusty Baker aide Dick Pole, seems headed for the fifth starter’s spot. That's impressive depth, so top prospect Homer Bailey is headed for a bullpen role. Francisco Cordero lived up to his hefty contract in year one as the Reds’ closer.

And the subtraction of some veterans has left this team squarely in the hands of the young: Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Edwin Encarnacion. If the young guns are ready to assume roles at the front of the rotation, this is the team that could surprise.

 

ST. LOUIS: Two huge assets: Baseball’s best player, Albert Pujols, and its best manager, Tony LaRussa. But that's not likely enough to offset major questions. Can anyone protect Pujols in the order? Can Chris Carpenter come back from a shoulder injury? Who is the closer? Can Skip Schumaker become an effective second baseman?

 

Like many teams, the Cardinals are wary of their spending. Attendance is projected to land around 3 million, a significant drop from 3.4 million, 3.5 million, and 3.4 million in the first three years of their new stadium.

 

Pujols voiced concern about the team's reluctance to pursue the big free agents in the offseason, a sentiment that rings loudly when you see the questions LaRussa must answer this spring.

 

MILWAUKEE: Give the Brewers Cincinnati's pitching and they would be the division champion. They can hit, and that’s assured to continue as they refused to trade Prince Fielder. But let's be real -- this team made the playoffs last season for ONE reason: CC Sabathia. Without him, they would have rivaled the Mets for late-season disappointment.

 

Now they have the young, Yovani Gallardo, and the old, Jeff Suppan, trying to be Sabathia and Ben Sheets at the top of the rotation. And the Brewers hope to squeeze one more year of deception out of closer Trevor Hoffman. It’s just too hard to imagine all of this coalescing.

 

HOUSTON: Like Milwaukee, the Astros can hit. And they have their Sabathia in Roy Oswalt. But the days between the Oswalt starts look bleak.

 

PITTSBURGH: I viewed a spring game the other night, and longtime Bucs watchers were raving about the incredible attitude around the clubhouse. Trust me, I've been there -- that's what you say after years of bad baseball. It’s been 16 straight losing seasons for Pittsburgh. There seems to be a plan with new ownership and management unafraid to change, and a rejuvenated emphasis on player development. No question, last year's top draft pick, Pedro Alvarez, should be a huge jolt of credibility for this regime. But there can only be one immediate goal for the Pirates: play .500 baseball.

FIVE SWINGS:

 

1. IT LOOKED LIKE A GREAT SCENE IN MIAMI as the U.S. stayed alive in the World Baseball Classic Tuesday night. Several quick thoughts:

1.) Attendance was 13,224. Does anyone in the U.S. care about this event IN MARCH? Let me be clear. I love the WBC, but not the timing of it.

2.) Think Puerto Rico views the save stat as overrated? Think it values a closer? The absurd pitch count rules forced the Puerto Ricans to finish with their seventh pitcher of the game.

3.) How important is the WBC outside the U.S.? Francisco Rodriguez TWICE saved a win for Venezuela by recording FOUR outs, something he was NEVER asked to do in his record-setting season for the Angels last year.

4.) Chipper Jones ripped the WBC scheduling that could have a team play eight games over three weeks. Down time is poison for players. Don't know if the WBC schedule is driven by television or stadium issues, but the WBC should be like Olympic hockey -- the entire competition over within 10 days.

 

2. THE YEAR AFTER strikes Cole Hamels. Here are his innings pitched totals including postseason:
2007           190
2008           262.1

Should anyone be surprised Hamels has a tight elbow this spring? Were we paying attention to Josh Beckett last year? Beckett's count:
2007           230, 1.20 ERA postseason

2008           188, 9.00 ERA postseason

 

3. DODGERS’ STARTERS are getting bounced around Arizona. Calm heads preach patience, and an understanding of the "dead arm" syndrome. Does ownership agree?


Update from my last blog: Dodgers manager Joe Torre says Jason Schmidt is in "continuing rehab," and not a candidate to begin the season as the fifth starter.

 

4. NO TEAM HAS MORE RIDING ON THE WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC than the Mets. The Mets have a Major-League-Baseball-high 16 players, including their "saviors," relievers Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, participating in the WBC. Fatigue or injury, or anything that shows negatively over the summer ahead and reflects on the WBC, will hurt the event's cause with one of its more ardent supporters.

 

5. IN SAN FRANCISCO AND OAKLAND, the A's are back in the news. As is too often the case, it's not about the team, but the franchise. A's owner Lew Wolff has written off any hope of a deal to stay in Oakland. Rumors of Las Vegas abound. And the "secret word", contraction, has been heard for the first time in several years.

 

One report had the A's and Marlins as potential contraction victims after a new collective bargaining agreement is struck.  An interesting view: A team president from another major professional sports league recently told me that his league now views expansion as "fool's gold."

The expansion fee, sliced 30 or so ways, is quickly offset by a diminished slice of television, merchandise, and other revenue streams. He sees expansion as a quick up-front payment neutralized by less annual revenue from other sources. So, if a league wanted to increase revenue streams to each team, and support itself in an uncertain economy, fewer slices in the big pie would seem to make sense.

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Comments

"If the brewers had the Red's pitching and they would be the division champion"????
put the crack pipe down, my brother. Mil had better pitching last year than Cin has this year and the Cub's still won 96 games. Think before you write!

jon, chicago (Sent Thursday, March 19, 2009 7:13 PM)

Are you serious??? The Reds are going to be horrible once again this year like every year.  You are a terrible sports analyst.  Find a new job.

Dan Boston (Sent Friday, March 20, 2009 9:44 AM)

Did you ever hear that song Dreaming by the Everly Bros ? Well just to let you know the Cubs will be there the end of September . Just to much deph & power ! So stop dreaming and just root for those loveable loosers !

Denver (Sent Saturday, March 21, 2009 4:11 PM)

Ted, I can agree with your points regarding Cincinnati's pitching, St. Louis' production from Pujols plus LaRussa's managerial genius, Milwaukee's hitters, and even Houston's expectations of Oswalt (regardless of his drop-off in production the last two years).  But I just can't see any of them being enough to challenge the Cubs for division dominance.

In Cincinnati, we have to remember that Dusty Baker still heads this team.  Add in the X-factor of Dick Pole, and I see the same issues with their pitching staff that plagued the 2003 Cubs team.  Beyond the pitching staff, I don't see any offense they possess that will challenge the veteran club the Cubs will field.  If their pitching stays healthy and productive for an entire season, I still wouldn't expect their talented position players (namely, Bruce and Votto) to continue the production they displayed as rookies once the rest of the league learns to pitch to them.  This was obvious even in 2008 as the season progressed, when their production slipped compared to the first half of the year.  You might say the same about Cubs youngsters like Soto, Theriot, or Fontenot, but even considering Theriot's late-season struggles last year, none of the Cubs youngsters had the same decrease in production that the Reds' youngsters experienced.

On to St. Louis, you are on the money with the team having two awesome assests in Pujols and LaRussa.  Beyond these two dynamos, we're stuck looking at a team with underachievers abound.  True to history, LaRussa has been able to extract more production from a gaggle of players than has been historically possible.  Unfortunately, after Pujols, their next-best player has to be Khalil Greene.  While being a position player and having more impact in day-to-day results, one player of Greene's caliber won't have enough influence on the team's overall yield of wins.  Last year was amazing for the Cardinals; this year looks to be a step backwards from that success.

Milwaukee hosts the best-hitting team in the NL Central; they're much better than the Cubs when projecting run production.  Regardless of this, they lack the pitching staff and defensive prowess to expect more than another wild-card berth.  A pitching staff anchored by a second-year pitcher (Gallardo) who may be able to assume the role of a true staff ace won't go far unless he has an outstanding sophomore season; highly unlikely, even given his better-than-average freshmen stats.  While I expect Gallardo to be as good (or better) than his stats from 2008, I wouldn't expect him to graduate to the level of a Zambrano or Oswalt (neither of which I consider more than "short of spectacular" status) until his third or fourth season when he has had the chance to season himself in the major leagues.  Hoffman is a joke and done as a closer; he proved it last year with 19 earned runs in only 45.1 innings with 8 home runs to back up his 88 mph fastballs.  You're right in thinking that the pitching staff in Milwaukee is deceptive, while I believe the concept of their coalescing to be a pipe dream at best.

Houston is void of pitching AND hitting beyond Oswalt and Berkman, respectively.  Additions like Rodriguez are bandaids, at best, and any improvement from players like Tejada and Pence are hopeful at best.  Pence might have the ability to replicate his numbers from 2008, but I believe most people would find a drop-off in his production quite realistic when considering his abilities in relation to continued exposure to adapting major league pitching.

Finally, the Pirates are a team without hope.  They have an unproven management staff and worse front office.  They don't have the talent to be able to pull off anything better than a third-place finish in the division, and that's only likely based on the rest of the division's performance throughout the season.  Alvarez's arm leading a group of mediocre (at best) starters won't achieve the success needed to bring the team to the level of Milwaukee or Chicago because they don't have the offense to back up a possible 4.50-ERA staff.  When Alvarez is likely to have half as many wins as the rest of the starters combined, the anemic offense won't produce enough runs to help win their fair share of games.  Ultimately, your rationalization of looking forward to a .500 season being the team's immediate goal is the most poignant fact you raise.  In my opinion, a 65-win season is more likely than anything nearing a .500 season for the Pirates.

Simply put, the Cubs are still the team to beat.  They possess a veteran staff in all areas: pitching, offense, and defensive abilities.  Cubs fans won't experience an easy year, but they won't find much in the division to challenge their superiority.  While I don't see a repeat of a 97-win season, I would still expect the starting pitchers to combine for 60-70 wins, and the team to win approximately 90 games and run away with the division title by about four games.

Geoff F., Chicago, IL (Sent Sunday, March 22, 2009 8:33 PM)

Geoff,
Great counter argument to Ted's column. Just one thing though. Alvarez, of the Pirates, is a 3rd baseman. You seem to be referring to him as a starting pitcher.

Brian, Cambridge MA (Sent Wednesday, March 25, 2009 7:56 AM)



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