Young Marlins no fish story
Posted: Wednesday, February 18, 2009 11:58 AM
As spring training camps open, in the spirit of impending March Madness, here are my early seedings of the National League teams --- not by division, but by overall strength.
No. 1 seeds:PHILLIES: They earn the top spot as defending World Champions. Placing Raul Ibanez in left field for Pat Burrell should not hurt, although Burrell's offense was underrated.
Reason for optimism: Chase Utley's strong recovery from hip surgery. Thoughts are that he could play in spring games by mid-March.
Key question: Can Jamie Moyer (age 46) pitch long enough to win 300 games (he has 246 career victories)?
CUBS: They share the dreaded "choke" label with the Mets, although the Cubs have at least played in the last two postseasons. But the sting of consecutive playoff sweeps will not be erased unless the Cubs reach this year's playoffs and make a run of it. They should.
Key questions: Can Carlos Marmol close now that Kerry Wood is gone? Where does Jeff Samardzija pitch? Can Milton Bradley stay healthy? Can Kosuke Fukodome shake off the first-year blues, a la Kaz Matsui?
METS: Nothing is proven here unless the Mets win the division. Nothing any player or manager Jerry Manuel does or says wins anything in win-or-nothing New York unless the Mets shake the memory of back-to-back September collapses.
Key questions: Does Luis Castillo have any production left? Can the left-field platoon of Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis make fans forget the Mets did not chase Manny Ramirez? And does the negativity that engulfed Shea Stadium in recent years, magnified in the last two Septembers, get forever buried in the rubble of the demolished park? Can the Mets enjoy a home field advantage in Citi Field? And will the new park keep its name given the economic woes of Citigroup?
MARLINS: There has to be one shock and here it is. The Phillies, Cubs, and Mets are above the rest of the league, but if any team can crack the top, it's the young Marlins. Why? Plenty of quality starting pitching.
Decimated last year by injuries, the Fish can go five-deep in impressive fashion in their rotation with Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller. Plus, Matt Lindstrom has displayed the talents of a closer.
The Marlins won't hit quite as much with the departures of Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham, but Florida knew it had to cut back on strikeouts, and shore up its defense. Give this staff some health, and the Marlins could well emerge from a balanced pack.
No. 2 seeds:DODGERS: Without Manny Ramirez, this team falls short of a top seed. They have young talent, and it flourished in the lighter atmosphere generated after Ramirez came aboard last season. That alone is a serious consideration for Dodger management in regards to signing Ramirez.
They shuffled the veteran cast as Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake stayed, Mark Loretta and Brad Ausmus arrived, while Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones departed.
Key questions: If no Ramirez, then where’s the big bat in the lineup? Can Jonathan Broxton close?
BREWERS: There’s so much to like about this team. A terrific young lineup stayed intact, but how much can you expect from a starting rotation that replaces CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets at the top with Yovani Gallardo and Dave Bush.
And Milwaukee needs Trevor Hoffman to show he can still close -- a challenge given the .869 OPS posted by left-handed batters against him last year.
CARDINALS: Hard to deny manager Tony La Russa major respect for continually maxing out his talent. No major position players were added while Troy Glaus is out for at least the first month (shoulder surgery), and Adam Kennedy was released.
Key question: Can Albert Pujols stay happy and motivated as he questions the inaction of management to improve the team?
Reasons for optimism: When healthy, Adam Wainwright showed ace potential (1.18 WHIP). And Dave Duncan, the game's premier pitching coach, is still at La Russa's side, ready to work the magic that last season added Kyle Lohse to a long list of reborn pitchers.
BRAVES: Lots of changes around Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Jeff Francoeur, who are the heart of this team. With John Smoltz gone, the longtime identity of this team has changed. No longer do their pitchers define the Braves. Now they hope new arrivals Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez stabilize the front end of the rotation while Jair Jurrjens proves his strong Braves’ debut was no fluke and the wait continues for heralded pitching prospect Tommy Hanson.
Key question: Can a healthy Mike Gonzalez re-establish himself as the closer?
No. 3 seeds:
GIANTS: If they sign Manny Ramirez (reports are the Giants and Ramirez’s agent Scott Boras are quietly engaging in talks), they vault to a No. 2 seed. That's how much they need a big bat, and how good their rotation could be. There’s no reason to believe in a drop from Tim Lincecum, and the Giants fervently hope this is the year that Matt Cain learns how to win close games. Brian Wilson is now a proven closer, who has the belief of his teammates.
Key questions: If there’s no Ramirez, can the Giants score? Can Aaron Rowand, invisible last September, rebound? Can Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt improve a glaring bullpen weakness?
REDS: They don't project to hit as much as recent Cincinnati teams, but how can you not like the young corps of position players in Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and Brandon Phillips?
Catcher Ramon Hernandez is a key addition as he is expected to aid the development of prize young starters Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez. The Reds have a solid bullpen so if the young arms mature, I like the surprise quotient in Cincinnati.
ROCKIES: Almost had them as a No. 2 seed. Simple equation here: the Rockies go as Troy Tulowitzki goes. Last season a May injury to Tulo was a setback from which the Rockies never recovered.
Despite trading Matt Holliday, they still have young bats in Brad Hawpe and Garrett Atkins, a star ready to bloom in Ian Stewart, and good young arms like Ubaldo Jimenez and Manny Corpas.
They don't appear to have the outfield or pitching depth to make a serious run at the playoffs.
Key question: Does Todd Helton, due $53 million over the next three years, have much left?
DIAMONDBACKS: Another team to tough read. They have the best 1-2 starting combination in the league, but despite a 38-15 record from Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the team finished a modest 82-80.
They were an offensive mess, too many strikeouts and trouble manufacturing runs. Manager Bob Melvin has vowed to address those woes in spring training, but the biggest help he could receive would be a comeback by Eric Byrnes, an offensive spark in 2007.
Key question: Can Jon Garland replace the 30 starts delivered by Randy Johnson?
No. 4 seeds:
ASTROS: They can hit, but can they pitch? Other than Roy Oswalt, the rotation is a mix of question marks and bloated ERA's.
PIRATES: The rebuilding plan continues. Saving grace now is that ownership seems reconciled to a patient approach, building around Nate McLouth, and the starting rotation trio of Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, and Ian Snell.
NATIONALS: Impossible to figure what is general manager Jim Bowden's plan. Equally tough to see many wins from this team.
PADRES: This is a sad story as a strong franchise is decimated by its majority owner John Moores’ costly divorce. The last time marital discord forced a sale was 1980 when Charlie Finley sold the A's. The Haas family saved the franchise. Can former agent Jeff Moorad, who has reached an agreement for his group to buy the Padres, do the same?
