Sizing up the Mark Teixeira derby
Posted: Monday, December 15, 2008 4:56 PM
What the blogosphere allows us to do is freely speculate and predict (all in the form of educated guesses and with full knowledge that we are wrong far more often than we are right). Without a personal knowledge of Mark Teixeira but with some insight into the involved parties pursuing him in free agency, here is my ranking of chances of the team’s involved at signing Teixeira.
RED SOX: Reports are they have made an eight-year offer, matching those offers put forth by the Nationals and Angels. Interesting take in the Boston Herald on the Red Sox studies of player productivity -- they have signed no position player beyond age 36, the age Teixeira would reach in the eighth year of these deals. Teixeira’s agent Scott Boras has talked 10 years but can he budge the Red Sox off of eight years?
My view: The Red Sox have the biggest need, the payroll flexibility (with the dollars no longer paid to Manny Ramirez) and the total package (East Coast, baseball mecca, winning team). The challenge: The Boston front office has an uneven relationship with Boras -- remember Red Sox owner John Henry was quoted that he believed Boras lied to Boston in the Johnny Damon negotiations. That didn't stop the Red Sox, though, from cutting deals with Boras for Daisuke Matsuzaka and J.D. Drew deals.
ANGELS: I can't shake the thought that if Teixeira wanted to stay West, Boras would have worked Angels owner Arte Moreno in Las Vegas after Moreno personally made the team's offer. This is a fascinating scenario as the Angels acquired Teixeira to win in October and, though not his fault, the team again crashed. Yet, the Angels have already lost Francisco Rodriguez and Garret Anderson and Jon Garland could be next so adding Teixeira to the list leaves them a much lesser team than the one that lost to the Red Sox. I also can't shake the thought that if any team would bid late and hard, it's the Angels.
ORIOLES: The hometown pull (Teixeira’s a Maryland native), juiced by Cal Ripken, must have some impact on the free agent. At some level, he must be dismayed over the years of losing and reams of empty seats in the game's revolutionary ballpark. Orioles president Andy MacPhail is a man of integrity whose credibility can convince Teixeira that better days are ahead for the franchise. But, in the end, can Orioles owner Peter Angelos act counter to his instincts and match the years and dollars others have bid for Teixeira? It appears not as Baltimore has not budged from its initial offer while reports say the other teams chasing Teixeira have exceeded what the Orioles have put and left on the table. So unless Teixeira is ready to give Angelos a hugh hometown discount, the Birds will have failed to fly high enough financially to land a native son.
NATIONALS: If Teixeira were just about dollars, he would have taken the seven-year, $144 million offered by the Rangers. He could have been comfortable, compiled big numbers in a hitters park, have little immediate hope of winning and seen his team overshadowed by football? What exactly is different about Washington?
YANKEES: Always the wild card, do the Yankees dare leap into this fray and steal the winter? Could they double down with the premier pitcher and hitter of free agency? Or are they hoping to drive up what the Red Sox pay for Teixeira? (I don't get this tactic since has either team shown any reluctance to pay for what it wants?) Remember Boras is holding Manny Ramirez as the "consolation" prize to those who miss on Teixeira. Maybe it’s a dream but there's something about Ramirez in pinstripes and the rancor it would produce in Boston that leaves me to believe it could happen.
FIVE MORE SWINGS:
1. GROWING UP IN NEW YORK…we had a "garage car." It was the family car, which was always housed under cover and was most used on trips to the grandparents or to church or special occasions. That car was treated with care, meant to last and never to be replaced. Then we had a "station car." That was used to take my father to the train station, kids to school and the daily errands of life. It stayed outside, taking the brunt of winter for it was considered disposable. When its useful life expired, we would simply find another "station car." In baseball, starters are "garage cars" and relievers are "station cars." Is there any other way to explain the discrepancy in offers to A.J. Burnett (five years) and Kerry Wood (two years)? My question: How long before a talented pitcher refuses to pitch out of the bullpen? When one’s role on a pitching staff hits earning potential that significantly, my guess is it won't take much for someone to make a stand.
2. WHICH REMINDS ME OF A CC SABATHIA STORY. In 2000, Sabathia, then a prized Cleveland prospect, was chosen for the Olympic Team. Word was relayed to the Indians that Tommy Lasorda planned to use Sabathia out of the bullpen. Cleveland quickly pulled Sabathia back and he was never part of the gold medal team. To the Indians, always a step ahead of the analytical curve, the issue was clear -- they would not jeopardize their top young arm by subjecting him to the rigors of relief pitching.
3. A FRIEND WITH WALL STREET EXPERIENCE…stopped me Thursday afternoon and asked if I had heard anything from the Mets. (He knew of my stint from 2002-05 as a Mets broadcaster). Unaware of his point, I asked why and he told me about the scandal surrounding investment manager Bernard Madoff. The Wilpons, who own and run the Mets, were involved, he told me, not in any criminal manner but as heavy investors. I wondered how long that information would stay quiet. The answer came the next morning when the New York Times outlined the connection.
For now, MLB says there is no concern. I have no direct knowledge of financials, but understand that in the last six years the Wilpons have bought out Nelson Doubleday, started a regional television network (in partnership with Comcast and Time Warner but the Wilpons own 65 percent of the network), greatly increased the Mets’ payroll and are poised to open a new ballpark in April. It's fair to assume the Wilpons have assumed debt and wonder how this scandal could affect their ability to meet the aforementioned financial obligations.
4. THE STRATEGY FOR BRIAN FUENTES…may have backfired. Fuentes and his agent told the Mets they wanted Francisco Rodriguez to sign and set the market for closers. Well, that didn't work out for either player. Now Fuentes is trying to sell the Angels on being K-Rod’s replacement. St. Louis has a need for a closer but why would they bid high seeing what Cleveland paid Kerry Wood. As Gordon Gekko proved in the end, greed is not always good.
5. RANDY JOHNSON IS SMILING EAR TO EAR…after the news that Jamie Moyer just signed a two-year deal to return to the Phillies. Johnson, a relative "kid" at 45 with multiple suitors, now has the precedent to seek a multi-year deal.
