Starters not closers will cash in
Posted: Wednesday, December 10, 2008 2:07 PM
The answers from the winter meetings are coming -- faster than we imagined.
DANCING WITH THE STAR…The New York Post reports today that CC Sabathia and the Yankees have a preliminary agreement on a seven-year, $160 million deal. And, for a day, it looked like Sabathia wanted to prolong his dance. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman admitted that Sabathia "controlled the pace."
Sabathia reportedly told Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti that he "wanted to be a Dodger." Today’s San Francisco Chronicle was agog over one conversation between Sabathia's agent and a Giants’ staffer. But buried in the same report was the nugget that Cashman flew to the Bay Area yesterday for a third consecutive day of meetings with Sabathia, this time at the pitcher's home and with his wife present. And by the time that meeting was over, Sabathia had made his decision to go with the Yankees.
The Yankees were persistent and determined not to repeat last winter's miss on Johan Santana. Other general managers were smart. Giants general manager Brian Sabean never bit on the mini-hysteria stirred in San Francisco over Sabathia's believed desire to pitch at home. Sabean and the other general managers were sure of one thing -- the players union would never let Sabathia sign for a "discount." The bidding had to start at a point above Santana's deal, hence the Yankees initial bid which no other team was inclined to approach.
Sabathia tried to drum up some interest, tried to wait out the economic downturn, tried to make California his new baseball home. But the Yankees have the money and the ballclub and the new stadium and the television network to make Sabathia the game's star pitcher. So the dance appears over.
THE METS CLOSED…on a new closer in Francisco Rodriguez, the first known financial “casualty” of baseball's new era. Think about these two deals for closers: Francisco Cordero signed with Cincinnati last winter for four years at $46 million. K-Rod, off a single-season saves record and with the most saves in the majors over the last three years, signs for three years at $37 million. If this year’s free-agent market is a poker game between teams and agents over the reality of the economic downturn, K-Rod’s agent blinked first. And the Mets landed the closer they so desperately need.
IF KERRY WOOD WERE A STARTER… would he have to settle for a two-year deal with Cleveland? Legit question from this angle: Wood is 31 and after a four-year battle with injuries, he proved healthy in 2008, finishing 56 games. A.J. Burnett will be 32 on Opening Day and in 2008 he won more than 12 games for the first time and started 30 games for just the second time. Yet, Burnett appears a lock for at least a four-year deal. Is Burnett at four years a better gamble than Wood at two years? Not in any sane world. But this is baseball where statistical analysis places a much higher value on starting pitching. The next time a team asks a pitcher to move to the bullpen remember that. Or when you hear a pitcher like Aaron Heilman of the Mets talk openly about wanting to leave the bullpen for the rotation. There are a lot of dollars involved.
IT'S CENTER STAGE FOR A.J. BURNETT AND DEREK LOWE…with Sabathia's deal apparently in place, the next two top-tier starters will become the object of much affection. And this leads to another gem of a Scott Boras story that came recently from someone close to Lowe in the winter of 2005 when Lowe's free agency landed him a stellar contract with the Dodgers. Three weeks earlier, the Dodgers had signed J.D. Drew, another Boras client. After Lowe signed, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski was quoted that he had made a similar offer to that which Lowe accepted from the Dodgers. Lowe is from Detroit and wanted to play for the Tigers. But he didn't know about the supposed offer from Dombrowski. When he called Boras, the agent broke out a famous line from Steve Martin's standup career, "Oops, I forgot." Lowe still employs Boras. Why? Because the pitcher knows this is his last big contract and players believe Boras will deliver the dollars.
YET BORAS STILL MAINTAINS THAT BASEBALL IS INSULATED…from the economic downturn. Did he read yesterday's San Francisco Chronicle? Here's Henry Schulman on a notable business decision:
The Giants announced Monday they are dropping prices on a significant portion of their seats for 2009, an act that would have been unthinkable even two years ago and a sure sign they fear this economic downturn could take a significant toll on revenues.
Unthinkable? Anyone remember the last time any team rolled back ticket prices across the board? I talked yesterday to a 35-year veteran of professional sports business and he told me that while sponsorship deals presently contracted will stay intact, renewals -- whether they come next winter or in two years -- will be extremely challenging. And his point was that salaries for the most part would reflect that dynamic. But "value", he said, will still be paid. In fact, he said, value is more important in a down time to keep fans and sponsors attracted to the product. So don't be surprised by Sabathia's deal or some others that will follow. Neither should we be surprised by the players of much less value who will be unable to land an invite to spring training and who will have to instead play in independent leagues next summer.
TURNS OUT THAT RAFAEL FURCAL…has some late bidders with Kansas City and Toronto jumping in along with the Dodgers. But word comes to me that the real reason for Furcal turning down Oakland's multi-year offer was his desire to return to Atlanta. Seems that Furcal has never reconciled leaving the Braves and was hopeful that a spot might open for him with his old team (if the Braves traded Yunel Escobar or made a move at second base). Now that seems unlikely and Furcal is said to be deciding on a new team by the weekend.
