Buyers beware of Boras’ spin
Posted: Thursday, November 27, 2008 11:29 AM
I stumbled on an interesting blog from last winter in this space. It was about the free agency of two premier centerfielders, Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter. At the time, Jones was coming off a horrible 2007 season with the Braves while Hunter had a tremendous walk year with the Twins.
Below in bolded text is what I wrote in that blog of a year ago:
Each man reacted differently to the pressure of his walk year. Hunter excelled and Jones struggled. Does this matter? Not if you listen to agent Scott Boras whose legendary stat books noted that Jones had hit more homers by age 30 than any outfielder other than Willie Mays. Jones has often been called the best defensive outfielder since Mays but only Boras could summon the gall to mention the two men in the same sentence about hitting.
I say it does matter. Both men are products of winning organizations but Hunter rates the slight edge in character and clubhouse presence. All who know him see Hunter as one of the game’s great people. So beloved is he in Minnesota that Twins fans had difficulty booing him after a crucial misplay in the 2006 playoffs.
So I say Hunter is the better signing, likely to cost less dollars and less years. Here’s the game to watch: which man signs first? Who sets the market? Boras will not allow Jones to go first unless the bidding is insanely high (see Barry Zito). Instead, Boras waits to see where Hunter, as well as Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron, land and raise the bidding by a set percentage.
I’m not sure Jones is worth that fight.
Now bringing to light the above is not self-congratulation. I am wrong far too often to indulge in such praise. Rather what I wrote a year ago triggered me to think about Boras pitching his clients on the open market this offseason. Last winter, Boras published a sales book that had the gall to reference Jones and Willie Mays in the same sentence about hitting prowess. Many credible reporters are citing Boras’ spin this winter on Jason Varitek -- with the agent making a case for Varitek to gain a deal similar to Jorge Posada’s four-year, $52-million contract signed last winter with the Yankees.
Slight problem -- Posada was coming off a spectacular offensive season and the Yankees know full well that first base is Posada’s eventual landing spot.
Varitek just finished an abysmal season with the bat. He turns 37 in April so how many games can he be projected to catch in the coming years and maintain any offensive production?
The Boras Book uses Bob Boone as an example of someone who caught regularly past his 40th birthday. True, but look at Boone’s offense in the latter years of his career. It was invisible, with little power and low slugging percentages (1988, his age 40 season, being the exception).
Reality is that clubhouse leadership and the handling of pitchers are important but in baseball they are not valued as much as hitting. Thus, rumors began to leak this week that Varitek and the Red Sox might be talking about a one-year deal, giving Varitek a chance to rebound offensively and regain some bargaining power.
Sounds like the deal last winter signed by -- Andruw Jones.
Yes, Jones scored a two-year deal but every other free agent centerfielder in the last two years scored at least a five-year contract.
Final scorecard from last winter: Hunter signs for five-years for $90 million, Jones signs for two years at $36 million.
My question: Are buyers becoming wary of Boras clients? Yes, the no-brainer superstars are set. They will get their deals even with Daffy Duck as their agent. But the marginal starter (Kyle Lohse), fading veteran (Varitek) or slumping All-Star (Jones) hasn’t found the market promised by Boras.
As always, Boras overshoots the runway, part of which is his job. Presently, Boras has set 10 years as a target for Mark Teixeira, hence the Angels sudden romance of CC Sabathia. Five years is the aim for Manny Ramirez and it is difficult to fathom any team entering that long of a marriage.
So while the sharpest focus will be on the deals for Ramirez and Teixeira, I will watch Varitek to see the true impact of this year’s Boras Book.
FIVE MORE SWINGS:
1. A RECENT L.A. TIMES ARTICLE…defended Boras as just “doing his job.” I think that a poor choice of words. Here’s how an agent does his job: with honesty, integrity and a conscience. How many baseball executives have ever used those words about Boras? Was Ron Shapiro any less effective as an agent because he was widely respected for those traits by executives? Boras is still fighting his personal war with baseball. He has won many battles and been wildly successful in material means. But has there been one occasion, just one, where Boras has left the impression that he cared in the slightest about the institution of baseball?
2. JUST ASK A-ROD…about that one. Last winter the Yankees slugger divorced Boras over the remarkably grotesque opt-out during a World Series game. In the winter of 2000-01, A-Rod wanted NO part of playing in Texas. After Rangers owner Tom Hicks wildly outbid the field, Boras implored on A-Rod his obligation to his fellow players to accept the Texas deal. A-Rod relented and we now know how that worked out. Last winter as Boras tried to orchestrate the disgusting opt-out scenario, A-Rod decided he wanted to stay a Yankee. He would not let Boras burn him twice. Next time you hear Boras say he allows his players to make up their mind over where to sign, ask A-Rod.
3. FASCINATING STORY…that Dodgers owner Jamie McCourt wondered out loud how the team’s fans would accept a mega deal for a player in this economic climate. The comment was made at an event where the Dodgers announced they would help build 42 youth baseball fields. Questions persist about the McCourt’s financial liquidity. Do the Dodgers have the means and the will to enter into the big bidding for top free agents, especially given the flops of their deals with Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre? But I can answer the McCourt question: We have never seen a group of fans that objects to owners spending money. NEVER. And fans will pay to see a winner. ALWAYS -- as Dodgers fans proved in August, September and October. My question is whether the McCourts were laying the groundwork for staying out of the fray this winter.
4. MORE PROOF THAT BASEBALL DOES NOT HIGHLY VALUE SAVES…is a good story by Joel Sherman which appeared in the New York Post last weekend quoting a Mets official that the team will not center its interest in free agent Francisco Rodriguez “on save totals or at least not save totals alone.” The official said the Mets will look at strikeout-to-walk ratios, on base percentage against and percentage of 1-2-3 innings. And K-Rod lacks in the latter category – he had a career low percentage of 1-2-3 innings in 2008, ranking in the middle of the MLB pack, well behind two other free agent closers Brian Fuentes and Kerry Wood.
5. THE BOSTON GLOBE…reports that young Japanese pitcher Junichi Tazawa will sign with the Red Sox. Two questions: 1) Are the Red Sox, given the success of Dice-K and Hideki Okajima, the preferred spot for Japanese pitchers? 2) Will there be any repercussions for the Red Sox and/or MLB in Japan over the unprecedented departure of a player, age 22, before he has played the required six years in Japan’s professional league.
