Wood will get dollars not years
Posted: Wednesday, November 19, 2008 5:32 PM
Kerry Wood and the Cubs "divorced" this past weekend. Chicago was the only organization Wood has known. It is where he became Nolan Ryan/Roger Clemens redux with his 20-strikeout performance in a game in 1998. It is where he rallied from multiple injuries to lead the Cubs to the brink of the 2003 World Series. It is where he finally shed serious weight and made the long-predicted transition to the bullpen. It is the city with which he connected, someone who earned the respect of Chicago.
Now Wood is a free agent, after an unusually civil separation. He wants a multi-year deal. Although the Cubs continue to spend (recently re-signing Ryan Dempster to a four-year, $52 million deal), the team told Wood it would not offer him the deal he seeks.
Who will?
Wood offers one main asset: strikeouts. In this blog on Monday I wrote about the value of starters posting wins versus gaudy strikeout and ERA numbers but also mentioned that the one place strikeouts matter most is from the bullpen.
It’s simple. A winning team has multiple relievers with "swing and miss" stuff. From relievers, teams value sheer dominance. Starters can last longer in games by pitching to contact, thus minimizing pitch counts. Relievers want to blow away hitters.
In 2008, Wood struck out 84 in 66 innings, a number that commands interest. The other side of the argument is obvious: Wood was healthy in 2008 for the first time in five years. A long-term deal with him carries more than usual risk for a team.
Yet Wood will point to Francisco Cordero's 2008 deal with Cincinnati (four years $46 million) as a benchmark. It is the bar that Francisco Rodriguez's agent expects to clear with ease.
Questions: Does Wood wait for K-Rod to sign and offer himself as a suitable Plan B to those teams still in need of a closer? Or does Wood try to move fast, offering himself as a more sensible (read: cost effective) closer than K-Rod? Is Wood willing to take a shorter deal?
There is no shortage of teams in need of a closer. One of those teams could well be Texas with one Nolan Ryan as team president. The Rangers might want to bring home Wood, a native son. And would the Mets move on Wood rather than enter a prolonged negotiation for K-Rod?
My guess: Wood is this year's Andruw Jones, an attractive player who will get dollars but not years. Jones took a two year, $36 million deal from the Dodgers last winter. Wood can't get $18 million a year but the market should bear him two years at $25 million -- not bad for someone with a clear history of arm problems.
FIVE MORE SWINGS:
1. WHILE WE STILL DONT KNOW HOW CLOSERS ARE VALUED… in this winter’s open market, Ryan Dempster’s new deal with the Cubs declares that starters are still high-ticket items. The dollars Dempster got had to thrill free agent Ben Sheets, who is to free-agent starters what Wood is to free-agent closers.
2. A.J. BURNETT… appears to have been correct in exercising his opt-out clause. Toronto's offer averages $13.5 million per year and if the reports are true that both the Yankees and Red Sox are in the chase, then Burnett could easily land a long-term deal at an annual rate of $15 million. We don't know how many big money deals will surface in this unsettled winter but it appears that starting pitchers will be fine.
3. WE SEE THIS ERA…as a time when teams are reinvesting in the amateur draft rather than jumping on the free-agent carousel. No surprise that the Royals led MLB in 2008 in draft bonuses with Tampa third, Pittsburgh fourth and San Francisco fifth.
Teams with high picks in the first round pay the biggest bonuses. But what stunned me was the second biggest spender -- Boston. It's a sign of the Red Sox devotion to the model created by John Schuerholz in the 1990s with the Braves, one which keeps a steady stream of young talent flowing through the system while doing everything to win at the major league level.
The bottom three in draft spending: Tigers, Angels and Mariners.
4. PEDRO MARTINEZ …is on the market and his agent made clear this week that Martinez would like to finish his career as a Met. For some reason, I still can't get out of my mind that the Mets could strike on Manny Ramirez and bring Martinez back as Manny's pal and buffer.
5. GREAT STORY FROM A'S OWNER LEW WOLFF…in an interview highlighted by his wish that the first playoff round was a one-game playoff. I would have loved to be in the room when Wolff suggested that to GMs.
Wolff said that at draft time he was in the A's war room and noticed different colored cards used for certain prospects. Wolff asked the baseball operations people why those players were in different colors and on a different board. The answer Wolff heard was, "Scott Boras clients."
