Phillies, Rays face key issues this winter
Posted: Thursday, November 06, 2008 7:46 PM
Coming off their meeting in the World Series, what’s ahead for the Phillies and Rays in the coming months? Here are the main questions Tampa Bay and Philadelphia must address in the offseason.
RAYS:
1. MARKET VIABILITY AND PAYROLL. Is Tampa Bay-St. Pete-Clearwater-Sarasota-Tarpon Springs-Bradenton, etc -- whatever the heck you call that region a major league baseball market? It has yet to prove itself such. Now it has the chance.
The excuse always exists in both Florida markets that stadium problems hamper growth. Nothing should negate the stadium issue more than winning (see Minnesota) and since Tampa Bay, unlike the Marlins, will keep most of the players from this winning team, the fan base has every reason to embrace the Rays. And the organization needs to anticipate revenue in order to set a 2009 payroll.
2. TRADE PART OF THE CORE? Whispers arose during the postseason that Tampa Bay might consider trading a core player like Scott Kazmir to keep payroll under control. The numbers are $43 million in payroll this year with $6.7 million in guaranteed raises for 2009. Those raises go to Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Dan Wheeler and Akinori Iwamura. There’s also arbitration for Grant Balfour and the need for a DH.
Kazmir just signed a $28.5 million extension but the emergence of David Price could make Kazmir expendable and free up dollars -- assuming the payroll doesn't soar -- to address needs in other areas.
3. FIND A DH. The Rays have already parted ways with Cliff Floyd and Eric Hinske. Will they entertain the thought of Rocco Baldelli as their full-time DH? Or will they make a move for a potent slugger who is a natural DH? Let's say a Jason Giambi. Also remember this team offered Barry Bonds a 1-year deal for the 2007 season.
PHILLIES:
1. KEEP ON COURSE DESPITE CHANGE. The transition to Ruben Amaro as general manager cost the team its longtime scouting/personnel evaluator Mike Arbuckle. Why? My educated guess is it's hard to stay someplace when you lose the hope of being promoted. Arbuckle’s departure means Amaro has to deal with not only the major league roster but also with continuing the flow of homegrown talent that anchored the World Series winner.
2. THE PRICE OF SUCCESS. There is a cost for a championship. For instance, Pat Burrell was heading towards a non-descript finish to his Phillies career before the thrill ride of the final two months. Now one report has him turning down a 2-year, $22 million offer from the Phillies (the team denies any talks with Burrell).
Is Burrell delusional? Not if you believe those who study the numbers. Rob Tracy of Elias Sports Bureau directed me to a website (fangraphs.com) that studies win probability and how each at-bat of a player contributes to that cause. Their study ranked Burrell 14th best in MLB in 2008 -- ahead of names like Justin Morneau, Ryan Braun, Dustin Pedroia, Carlos Quentin and Chipper Jones.
So what does this mean to the Phillies? They have to weigh the validity of numbers against the delusion created by winning. Then they decide the worth of Burrell, Jamie Moyer and their other free agents and arbitration eligible players. It's a challenging introduction for a first-year general manager.
3. HOWARD VS. ROLLINS. This isn't a personal battle between the two but rather a contract question – one which I wonder whether the Phillies can continue to avoid. Howard made $10 million in 2008 and will better that in arbitration. Rollins is locked in to a long-term deal at $7.5 million for 2009 having just earned a second straight Glove to offset a drop from his 2007 MVP numbers.
Does Rollins, turning 30 this month, continue with his current deal as he watches teammates earn far more, like with Burrell's $14 million this year. If the Phillies keep Rollins happy while Howard's salary zooms, it will be one of the great achievements in this era of sport.
FIVE MORE SWINGS:
1. BASEBALL PROSPECTUS…adds a valued perspective, especially in the offseason. Writing in SI, BP's Joe Sheehan had a daring proposal: The Angels release Gary Matthews and the Dodgers release Juan Pierre. Both teams would love to move those onerous contracts but it's hard to see them eat three years of big money. My thought is that two years ago these two players were highly sought as free agents. San Francisco, for example, pursued both and failing to land either led to the nightmare that is Barry Zito’s addition. Will these two contracts serve as any caution to teams this winter? I don't think so either.
2. GOOD PIECE…by Rob Neyer on Scott Boras' annual sales pitch -- the subject of this year's Boras-generated book is Oliver Perez. Boras' research claims Perez is one of the top five lefties in the game -- a thought I admit has never crossed my mind. Neyer uses his clinical eye to counter the claim and concludes that perhaps Perez sneaks into the top 10! Perhaps Perez should study last winter's Kyle Lohse case. Boras wanted 4 or 5 years and ended with a 1-year deal for Lohse from St. Louis.
3. THE MANNY RAMIREZ DERBY… has started with the Dodgers' offer to the free agent slugger. If reports are true, the length (2-3 years) seems more likely to be what goes down rather than any team meeting Boras' want of 6 years.
The agent blusters about the 5-year deal he landed for Barry Bonds after the 2002 season. Let us again tell the truth of that contract: NO TEAM offered Bonds anything that winter other than the Giants. They needed him, arrived at a dollar figure and stayed there, eventually spreading the same amount of money over five years instead of four to appease the agent's ego.
4. THE METS…say Ramirez is not an object of their interest. Mets general manager Omar Minaya knows his first priority is to fix his pitching. Will Boras hold Ramirez on the market long enough to see if the Mets change their minds about pursuing him?
5. ANOTHER PLAYER WHOSE…lack of fitness has cost him is Brad Penny. The Dodgers passed on a $9.25 million option. Penny was hurt much of 2008 and, even worse, he was huge in pounds, which hampered his ability to come back from injury. Word is Penny has seen the light and is in a winter conditioning program. He could be a free-agent find if he gets in shape. Remember not long ago he was an All-Star.
