November 2008 - Posts
I stumbled on an interesting blog from last winter in this space. It was about the free agency of two premier centerfielders, Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter. At the time, Jones was coming off a horrible 2007 season with the Braves while Hunter had a tremendous walk year with the Twins.
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Here are five players on the open market who, although they probably won't have signed by Thursday, will have reason to give thanks this week:
DEREK LOWE: His durability (seven straight years of 32 starts and six years of 200-plus innings) looks to be valued in the non-Sabathia market. And the news of Chad Billingsley's broken leg may force the Dodgers to revise their thinking. Agent Scott Boras likely holds Lowe until the late stages of the offseason to leverage him between the Yankees, Red Sox and anyone else not in the Sabathia bidding.
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Nothing major has happened in the first week of free agency. Mark Teixeira was on the Georgia Tech sideline Thursday night for the Yellow Jackets win over Miami and when interviewed he said his signing process will take several more weeks.
Elsewhere, the retirement of Mike Mussina could prove an added financial windfall for free agents CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe. All three are targets of the Yankees. Having lost Mussina, the Yankees now need to sign two of the aforementioned trio of starters to fulfill their stated offseason goal of bolstering their rotation.
Sabathia has already been presented with an extremely lucrative offer by the Yankees – one that reportedly would exceed Johan Santana’s $137.5 million, six-year contract with the New York Mets both in total and average per year.
Expect huge offers to Burnett and Lowe from the Yankees -- a team that an AL general manager said can only “be held back by its conscience. If they want, they could add $100 million in salaries for this year.”
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Kerry Wood and the Cubs "divorced" this past weekend. Chicago was the only organization Wood has known. It is where he became Nolan Ryan/Roger Clemens redux with his 20-strikeout performance in a game in 1998. It is where he rallied from multiple injuries to lead the Cubs to the brink of the 2003 World Series. It is where he finally shed serious weight and made the long-predicted transition to the bullpen. It is the city with which he connected, someone who earned the respect of Chicago.
Now Wood is a free agent, after an unusually civil separation. He wants a multi-year deal. Although the Cubs continue to spend (recently re-signing Ryan Dempster to a four-year, $52 million deal), the team told Wood it would not offer him the deal he seeks.
Who will?
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You have one game to win and one starter to choose. Do you go with Nolan Ryan or Greg Maddux?
This was the culmination of a conversation spurred by a statement I read last week that left me speechless. A respected baseball writer, someone I know and admire, wrote that Tim Lincecum’s NL Cy Young Award proved that voters have “entered the 21st century and realize that wins are the most overrated statistic.”
The first jolt was the surface absurdity of such a thought. Winning is overrated? Why waste the time awarding a win to a pitcher if it so meaningless?
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1. Brian Sabean, Giants…New management from within the same ownership group changes the dynamic for this team. After reporting to the same people for 11 years, there are new bosses for Sabean. And with that, a clear mandate for a new way to do business.
It started last winter with the arrival of John Barr to supplant Dick Tidrow in amateur scouting. Barr's first draft was regarded as outstanding. The bottom line in San Francisco: There is hope. For the first time in a decade, the Giants’ farm system has produced some promising position players. Tim Lincecum won a Cy Young in his first full season. The ballpark isn't so new anymore but is still an attraction. Yet, the Giants have four straight losing seasons, attendance dropped in 2008 and the economy won't help the hope of a rebound, and they are saddled with Barry Zito's contract. Still, the NL West is relentlessly mediocre, assuming Manny Ramirez is not back with the Dodgers, thus with the right moves, Sabean could put the Giants back into contention more quickly than imagined.
As first suggested here a month ago, don't be surprised if they aggressively kick the tires on CC Sabathia. They have sales points: his hometown, a pitcher's park and the National League allows Sabathia to pursue his second love, hitting.
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A baseball season is a marathon. Players train for longevity and duration, not for speed. The perfect marathoner runs virtually the same pace in mile 1 and mile 26. Rewards go to those who maintain their strength over the whole distance. Those who spurt tend to be penalized.
And that is always the lens through which I've viewed baseball teams. The sport's structure has changed with the addition of playoff rounds in the late 1960's (LCS) and then the 1990's (LDS). So the demand of a team is to win the marathon -- outlast all over the 162-game grind and then win three sprints in the postseason.
No other sport offers a similar challenge. A club can make the playoffs in other professional team sports with a .500 record. Rare is the baseball team to advance beyond the regular season with a break-even record.
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I had to count the years to be sure. Yes, it has been six years since Bobby Valentine managed in the major leagues.
Since his exile from being the manager of the Mets, Valentine has spent one year at ESPN followed by five years managing in Japan. Out of sight, out of mind -- maybe in most cases but not when you have a strong track record and loyal friends like Valentine does. Thus we read last week of Valentine’s connection with new Seattle general manager GM Jack Zduriencik, with whom Valentine has a history when both worked for the Mets.
Reports are that Boston bench coach Brad Mills will kick off the interview derby for Seattle and there is no confirmation of Valentine being in the group that gets talked to about the position. But Seattle could do much worse than turning to Valentine.
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Coming off their meeting in the World Series, what’s ahead for the Phillies and Rays in the coming months? Here are the main questions Tampa Bay and Philadelphia must address in the offseason.
RAYS:
1. MARKET VIABILITY AND PAYROLL. Is Tampa Bay-St. Pete-Clearwater-Sarasota-Tarpon Springs-Bradenton, etc -- whatever the heck you call that region a major league baseball market? It has yet to prove itself such. Now it has the chance.
The excuse always exists in both Florida markets that stadium problems hamper growth. Nothing should negate the stadium issue more than winning (see Minnesota) and since Tampa Bay, unlike the Marlins, will keep most of the players from this winning team, the fan base has every reason to embrace the Rays. And the organization needs to anticipate revenue in order to set a 2009 payroll.
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As the Manny Ramirez derby begins, perhaps the most fascinating team to watch will be the Mets. Do they really plan next April on opening Citi Field -- their new shrine to Ebbets Field -- with a Daniel Murphy-Fernando Tatis platoon in left field?
Do the Mets – a team which has previously pursued a trade for Ramirez -- take a run at finally landing him through free agency? Does ownership want to expand the payroll and accept the risk inherent with a mercurial talent?
To me there are a few reasons to say yes, the team will seek to sign Ramirez.
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Spent last week in Dublin performing first-hand quality assurance in the finest Creed Bratton tradition on Guinness and even in Ireland I was caught up in the Philadelphia World Series celebration. Nothing unites a city and region like a baseball championship. I saw it twice in Minnesota and the internet clips I watched of the City of Brotherly Love celebrating had a familiar look. So that made me think about something I read before leaving for Ireland. It was a column suggesting a neutral site for the World Series.
Now I realize that as newspapers die some of those who write for them may try to shock with their content to simply draw attention to their publication as its reader base withers. But the source of this suggestion is usually coherent.
Is there anything more wrong than moving the World Series to a neutral site?
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