Will Papelbon become the next great closer?
Posted: Friday, October 17, 2008 12:20 PM
One huge factor in what looked to be Tampa’s Bay’s stunning sweep of the Fenway Park ALCS games was that Jonathan Papelbon didn’t leave the bullpen until a courtesy/desperation appearance in the seventh inning of Game 5 -- one that looked bad when he allowed two inherited runners to score but became surprisingly important when he stifled any further scoring.
For most of this series Papelbon was neutered as Tampa Bay scored early and often and the Rays’ starting pitchers negated Boston’s bats (until the final three innings of Game 5 when the Red Sox incredibly rallied back from a 7-0 deficit to stave off elimination with by winning 8-7).
For Red Sox Nation there was going to be much gnashing of teeth about the absence of Manny Ramirez, whether David Ortiz was healthy and the first postseason slump by Jacoby Ellsbury – that is until the astounding three-inning deathbed kick by Boston that sent the series back to Tampa Bay for Game 6 on Saturday night.
But a Red Sox weapon every bit as mighty as the Boston bats which suddenly awoke from a series-long slumber has been Papelbon – a 27-year-old who in just three-plus seasons in the majors could be on track to become the next Mariano Rivera, the game’s next great closer.
Let’s be clear that assertion is a very early statement. Rivera has excelled for a decade, working 76 postseason games and 117 innings with 34 saves and a ridiculous 0.77 ERA. He may not have the zip of his early years but the hitters still know the cutter is coming and are still left helpless dealing with it.
Papelbon will turn 28 in November and has worked in 15 postseason games for 24 innings without allowing a run. He has allowed only 10 hits, striking out 21 in the 24 innings.
Can he maintain that level of dominance? For him to have a shot at answering that question Boston must maintain its standing as an annual playoff contender. The Red Sox are young but Tampa Bay’s arrival and the continued rebuilding in Toronto give pause to the thought that Boston can replicate the Yankees’ 12-year playoff run.
Then there is the question of whether a hard thrower like Papelpon -- someone who relies on heat -- can sustain that dominance over a decade. An even bigger question to me is whether Papelbon can continue to throw a splitter over time without injury.
Watching Brad Lidge in the late parts of the season, where he has maintained his perfect save record despite some rocky moments, makes one appreciate the utter dominance of Rivera and Papelbon.
FIVE MORE SWINGS:
1. THE PHILLIES PROVED…that having a complete team matters when they overtook the Mets to win the NL East in part due to the Mets’ over reliance on a few stars while the Phillies built a solid bench and deep bullpen.
The same formula applied in the NLCS when the Phillies won in five games despite getting little production out of Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard. For the second straight year, the NL was extremely balanced (the optimist view) or mediocre (the cynic’s view) save for the Cubs. Once the Dodgers took care of the league’s one good team, it’s no surprise on any of the remaining playoff clubs reaching the World Series.
2. BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS FOR THE PHILLIES: Does manager Charlie Manuel pitch Jamie Moyer in Game 3 or 4? Moyer has been hit hard in both postseason starts but he was strong in 2001 for the Mariners in the postseason. The veteran has plenty of experience indoors, if Tampa Bay gets to the Fall Classic, as well.
Brad Lidge hung sliders in the final inning against the Dodgers so can he skate one more series without cracking? And at third base does Manuel play Pedro Feliz, vulnerable to good pitching but a good defender, over Greg Dobbs?
3. THE FREE AGENT MARKET BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE…in Tampa this week at the Yankees’ organizational meetings. And Hank Steinbrenner has reinforced that he is indeed a chip off his father’s block by telling the New York Post last week that nothing matters “unless you get it from me or (his brother) Hal. I don’t care about some piss-ant employee.” Another warm and fuzzy Yankee moment. But agents are awaiting their decisions for as usual the Yankees will set the tone financially in the pursuit of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira, etc.
4. THE END OF THE DODGERS SEASON…means a huge decision awaits them with Manny Ramirez. The NLCS finally exposed L.A. as an average team that rode an unconscious streak by Manny into a strong finish. The Dodgers are likely to lose Derek Lowe to free agency, aggravating a need for starting pitching. They have a closer decision to make regarding Jonathan Broxton. But their fan base was electrified by Manny. He was a star in Hollywood, a place where stars thrive in relative calmness compared to other markets like New York and Boston. Manny has to want to stay and if he does feel he can call L.A. home, can the Dodgers justify the cash? Maybe even a better question: Does ownership have the cash to give him the mega deal he seeks?
5. SANDY ALDERSON IS A SHREWD EXECUTIVE…and in the aftermath of the Padres meltdown season reports from strong sources indicate he is shopping rotation ace Jake Peavy, who is just one year removed from a Cy Young but more importantly signed for four more years. Alderson realizes he can pre-empt the free-agent chase by striking quickly with a player whose cost is established. Last year, baseball watched the Twins struggle in the Johan Santana trade market partly due to his impending free agency.
