Arizona should win inferior NL West
Posted: Saturday, July 19, 2008 12:38 PM
What the heck has happened in the NL West? Last fall it was the division of youth, the division that sent two teams to the playoffs and both made it to the NLCS. It was the division that highlighted baseball’s new era of youth over age, development over open-market spending and sound judgments over rash decisions.
And now the second half of the season started without a team over .500 in the NL West. The team that was unanimously picked to finish last, San Francisco, and was uniformly derided as being painfully slow in adapting to the aforementioned formula, has the best record over the last seven weeks and is in third place.
These questions are always too hard to produce one simple answer. So here are some contributing factors:
INJURIES: The two best players in this division last year, Eric Byrnes of Arizona and Troy Tulowitzki of Colorado, have been non-factors in the first half. Their teams have both suffered. Neither has been able to replace the loss of their production. But Arizona has a bigger burden as Byrnes appears done for the season while Tulowitzki will play in the second half -- albeit too late for the Rockies to reprise their amazing dash to the finish line last fall. And injury has also struck down Rafael Furcal, weakening the Dodgers’ hopes.
BAD SIGNINGS: This mostly affects the Dodgers, the team most expected to challenge Arizona for division supremacy. But in the NL no team has received so little from so much as Los Angeles. The Dodgers have terrific young talent, a blossoming star pitcher in Chad Billingsley but no help from the veterans. Baseball history tells us that Andruw Jones can’t continue to be this bad but can you really expect much from Nomar Garciaparra? Or anything more from Juan Pierre?
THE CUBS: The NL isn’t very good but one standout team, the Cubs, has battered the NL West to the tune of 22-7. Arizona is the only team with games remaining against Chicago.
ARMS: The NL West is a pitcher’s division. Three of the ballparks -- in San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles -- heavily favor pitchers yet other than Arizona’s Brandon Webb and San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum none is having a standout year. Brad Penny of the Dodgers has been mediocre and injured. Jake Peavy has been good for the Padres but he’s been disabled long enough to keep him from having as much of an impact as in previous years. Colorado’s young guns (Jeff Francis, Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez) have regressed this year.
SAN DIEGO: The team that should have been in the postseason last year is a bottom dweller this year. The Padres don’t hit and it’s painful in their cavernous ballpark (just 3.55 runs on average per game). At the All-Star break the Padres had but one player (Adrian Gonzalez) with at least 40 RBI.
OUTLOOK: Arizona is still the division’s best team. And the Diamondbacks’ record against NL West teams -- 21-10 at the All-Star break -- is proof of that. Assuming the Diamondbacks suffer no more crippling injuries (a la Orlando Hudson in last year’s stretch run), they should outlast a field that offers no team likely to put together a Colorado-like kick of last season.
FIVE MORE SWINGS:
1. HE’S NOT WHAT HE USED TO BE…But Randy Johnson looks more likely than ever to reach 300 wins. He’s been healthy and still strikes out one batter per inning. He’s more hittable than ever and lacks stamina (averaging less than six innings per start) but he’s only 10 wins away from 300 and he shows enough on the mound to get a chance to reach that milestone next year.
2. RICHIE SEXSON IS THIS GENERATION’S DAVE KINGMAN…The slugger of the 1970s and 1980s, Kingman retired rather than accept a platoon DH role with Detroit in 1987. Kingman wanted to play every day while Tigers manager Sparky Anderson knew Kingman’s strength was hitting lefties. Kingman’s parallels, both physically and in performance, with Sexson are staggering.
Looking at the All-Star break stats, I was stunned to see that Sexson hit lefties well this year for Seattle and was hopeless against righties. So after his release from the Mariners, the Yankees have signed him. He debuted in pinstripes last night and drove in a run. I have to consider his signing a move well done in the Bronx.
3. WHY IS IT THAT ANY COLORADO PLAYER, recently Matt Holliday, is questioned when he has a significantly higher home batting average yet Atlanta’s Chipper Jones goes unchallenged after posting a .437 average at Turner Field in the first half of the season?
4. WHY I LOVE ALBERT PUJOLS…he has struck out 30 times at the All-Star break. Why does baseball continue to accept the strikeout? Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard will break the record this year, 130 whiffs already, but generates massive power numbers. How about Oakland’s Jack Cust (117) or rookie leadoff hitters Carlos Gomez (97) of Minnesota and Fred Lewis (91) of San Francisco? Can their teams afford to absorb so many empty outs?
5. WAS THERE EVER A CLEARER DIFFERENCE…between the leagues than in the late innings of the All Star Game? The AL trotted out, in order, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera. All the NL could offer by way of premier closers was Billy Wagner and Brad Lidge. Kerry Wood is injured and has yet to establish himself for a full season in that role. Come October some NL team is going to have to beat a hellacious closer to win the World Series.
