Intrigue building over trading deadline
Posted: Saturday, July 05, 2008 2:04 PM
Will the Indians trade the ace of their starting rotation C.C. Sabathia, who is in the final season of a multi-year contract? That appears to be the biggest question to be answered before baseball reaches its trading deadline on July 31.
No one can tell how the AL Central, which is not the powerful division most expected it to be, will play out in the three weeks leading up to the trading deadline. Can the Indians give up on their chances to finish first? Not if control of the division hasn’t been grabbed by another team.
Will Indians general manager Mark Shapiro hope he can pull off a trade like the one he made in 2002 with Montreal that ranks as one of the greatest deadline deals. Shapiro acquired Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo Colon. It is a trade that has been a standard-bearer for all July deals and a curse because it can likely never be repeated.
If Sabathia is moved, Milwaukee has a loaded stable of minor league talent, especially at the Double-A level, which is a credit to the organization put in place in the late days of the Selig family ownership and improved upon under current owner Mark Attanasio.
If any team is willing to move young talent for an established star it might be the Brewers. Attanasio has spent to improve the team, expectations have been built and the Cubs are threatening to pull away in the NL Central.
If Sabathia stays in Cleveland, what other marquee pitcher could be moved? How about Toronto’s A.J. Burnett, who has an opt-out clause in his contract which he can exercise after this season. His secondary numbers, those that the SABR folks love, are impressive but at 31 with a history of fragility, how much could the Blue Jays realistically seek in return for Burnett?
My pick for the big-name pitcher most likely to be moved is Oakland’s Rich Harden, he of the filthy stuff and high fragility. The A’s have been patient and have nursed Harden back to health. It is the perfect time for Oakland general manager Billy Beane to strike in the trade market and maximize the return for a pitcher whose arm could hypnotize a contender.
It would be no surprise, either, if the A’s finally move Joe Blanton and/or Huston Street. But remember that a starting pitcher will only work 8-10 times after a deal by the trade deadline. Perhaps the biggest starter to move in the last decade, Randy Johnson to Houston in 1998, wasn’t a season-altering acquisition.
Position players who could be changing uniforms? Mark Teixeira was a deadline acquisition by the Braves last year. Though his numbers are terrific, the Braves have not won with him. Riddled with injuries, Atlanta must decide if Teixeira, who becomes a free agent after the season, is a player who if dealt could bring the Braves some prized young chips in return.
Matt Holliday is often mentioned as Colorado approaches service-time milestones with the young corps of its World Series team. But how can the Rockies trade one of the best young hitters in the league, especially when he follows in the Colorado tradition of having a much higher batting average at home?
Now the caution flags: Last year the Red Sox went deep for Eric Gagne, a move that was a disaster and cost them young outfielder David Murphy. And Atlanta’s move for Texeira didn’t get the Braves into the postseason like at least some thought it would.
In some cities teams feel pressure from media and fans to make a deal by the trading deadline, which no one argues is the worst time to deal.
In other situations teams know the trading deadline is the right time to dump a player but they fear the “White Flag” backlash, named for the White Sox 1997 trade of Wilson Alvarez and Roberto Hernandez to the Giants.
Then there is the “Kazmir Syndrome,” named after the single-worst deadline deal in recent years -- the Mets’ trade of Scott Kazmir to Tampa Bay in 2004. There was not one sound reason for the Mets to make that deal other than ownership’s involvement in baseball matters and the irrational desire to salvage something from what had become a mediocre season.
And there is the unspoken key to deciding whether to deal in July. General managers and owners must be realistic in assessing their team’s chances of getting to the playoffs. Mortgaging young talent for a mediocre veteran (see Kazmir) in the hopes of pushing a mediocre team into contention for at least a wild-card spot is nothing more than chasing fool’s gold. Thankfully, the practice has been curbed, surely in response to the debacles with Kazmir and Sizemore-Lee-and-Phillips.
I’d say that caution outweighs the reward. Often general managers feel the pressure -- not from outside but from within their own clubhouse -- to deal. Recall the heat former Twins general manager Terry Ryan absorbed from Torii Hunter and Johan Santana when the Twins off loaded Luis Castillo and added no one last July. Many general managers feel obliged to reward the efforts of their team by adding help at the deadline. But that obligation can negatively alter their thinking, which is why unless the Yankees are in a high sense of desperation at month’s end, I’d bet on a quiet deadline.
