Can fast-starting teams stick around?
Posted: Wednesday, April 16, 2008 3:46 PM
We are just about 10 percent of the way through the season, the equivalent of runners reaching Mile 3 in this coming Monday’s Boston Marathon. (By the way, thanks for peeling yourself away from the scintillating analysis of next season’s newly released NFL schedule. This analysis is the height of absurdity. I heard one breathless talker ranting about the brutal stretch Chicago faces in November and December. Does anyone know who will be playing for the Bears by then?
So while admitting that the assessments that follow in this blog are quite premature, it’s fun to look at the teams that are early-season surprises and attempt to gauge how long they might be able to remain in the thick of things in their respective divisions.
INTO SEPTEMBER:
ST. LOUIS: The Cardinals’ starting pitching is the early-season revelation. But should we be surprised? No one extracts more out of pitchers with mediocre career stats than St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan. Thus, Kyle Lohse (2-0, 1.04 ERA after his first three starts) could not have signed with a better team to increase his value. If he keeps pitching the way he has out of the gate, he’ll be in position after the season to fleece a team out of the kind of lucrative, multi-year deal his agent, Scott Boras, couldn’t get for him last winter.
Braden Looper, a failed closer, is 3-0 in the second year of a successful transition to starting. And the Cardinals have two other strengths: the NL’s best offensive player in Albert Pujols and the ongoing lack of a powerful team in the NL Central.
INTO AUGUST:
OAKLAND: Athletics general manager Billy Beane says he’s pleased with the mix of players his team is fielding and Beane, baseball’s premier teardown/rebuild artist, has good reason to feel that way. Think of it like this: the A’s have received nothing from Eric Chavez, little from Justin Duchscherer or Rich Harden and last year’s power find, DH Jack Cust, is struggling. And yet the A’s are over .500.
A key to their success – and I mean this positively -- is playing in Oakland, which is equivalent to a witness protection program for the players. They experience no pressure from fans, there’s no media microscope, no sports talk venom, and no expectations. In all, perfect conditions for a team trying to surprise. And the AL West doesn’t have a powerhouse team.
KANSAS CITY: The Royals contending into August may be a stretch -- the All-Star break could be more realistic if the Tigers and Indians start playing to form. It’ll be a big boost if third baseman Alex Gordon continues his strong start.
But the Royals have received the contribution most valuable over the long haul – solid starting pitching. Brian Bannister is proving no fluke and Zack Greinke (3-0, 0.75 ERA in his first three starts) appears poised to move beyond his rocky past. Also, Gil Meche is better than his shaky start.
INTO JULY:
FLORIDA: The Marlins are the opposite of the Royals as their inconsistent starting pitching has kept them from running off a head-turning winning streak. Looks like Andrew Miller may not be ready to hold a spot in the rotation and they already bailed on Rick VandenHurk.
But there are some good young players on Florida’s roster and none is blossoming more than shortstop Hanley Ramirez. At the end of last year, a blind comparison of stats would have led one to value Ramirez as much as the more heralded Jose Reyes of the Mets. As this season unfolds Ramirez may blow by the Mets standout, at least from an offensive standpoint.
BALTIMORE: The Orioles are in just too powerful a division. But the early signs this season are positive that Baltimore president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail (a proven winner) had the right idea. His courage to tear apart a failed and flawed team meant patience from an owner not known for such a trait and a fan base already taxed by a decade of bad baseball.
But as Mitch Albers and George Sherrill pitch more and Luke Scott and Adam Jones play more, there should grow the belief that the Orioles are finally headed in the right direction. The fans need that faith, evidenced by the startlingly small crowd of 11,000 at Camden Yards two nights ago.
FIVE MORE SWINGS:
1. Harden may be the next Mark Prior, a wildly talented pitcher who is maddeningly brittle. Oakland’s patience with Harden is in its last lap.
2. Andruw Jones told all who inquired in the spring not to worry about his inflated weight. Those words can now be ignored as Jones has stumbled out of the gate (.149 BA with 14 strikeouts in 14 games). The normally docile Dodger crowds have booed him.
3. Concern over Roy Oswalt? In the first 16 innings he pitched this season, he surrendered 30 hits. It’s hard to identify the Astros’ blueprint for success but without Oswalt producing, they have no chance.
4. Telling comment: “The last three years in New York weren’t much fun.” Former Yankees manager and current Dodger skipper Joe Torre to TIME Magazine.
5. Telling comment # 2: “I told them that we needed to improve our starting pitching to be a better postseason team.” Again, Torre to TIME. Interesting words in the aftermath of l’affaire Santana.
