Pressure is on for players under the gun
Posted: Monday, February 11, 2008 2:58 PM
The new season is highly anticipated for a number of reasons and many players have a lot to prove. Here's a look at my top-10 list of those who will be feeling the heat from the first day of spring training.
Jason Bay
Pirates
Pittsburgh’s hope of breaking out of a decade-and-a-half cycle of misery is rooted in new ownership and new general manager Neal Huntington. The Pirates have endured 15 consecutive losing seasons and another sub-.500 campaign will put the franchise in the record books as Pittsburgh will equal the major league record for futility set by the Phillies, who went 16 seasons (1933-48) without posting a winning mark. There is young pitching to build around, but Bay, the 2004 NL Rookie of the Year and an All-Star in 2005 and 2006, is the team's centerpiece player.
The concern is the left fielder's severe offensive falloff last season. Consider his dip: in 2005 he cranked out 44 home runs, hit .306 and had a slugging percentage of .559. The next year he belted 29 home runs, had a .286 average, and another outstanding slugging percentage of .532. Then came last season's descent when his average took a nose-dive to .247, the same for his slugging percentage which tumbled to .327 and to make matters worse his home runs and RBIs also fell short of his totals in those categories the previous two seasons. The Pirates heard their share of trade offers for Bay in the offseason, but elected to keep him. That decision turns out well for them if the 29-year-old shows that his miserable 2007 was a blip and not the start of a pattern signaling a career downturn.
A.J. Burnett
Blue Jays
Since signing a lucrative five-year deal with Toronto as a free agent in December of 2005, Burnett has had difficulty staying healthy. He made just 21 starts in 2006 and 25 last season. Both those campaigns ended with 10-8 records, and being a member of the rotation who can only muster two more wins than losses in a season is not what Toronto has in mind for Burnett given the huge dollars he is being paid. As much as Burnett's first two years in Toronto have fallen short of expectations, he did finish strongly last season, pitching well from mid August until the end of the schedule.
Is he motivated for 2008? One has to believe so since he can opt out of his contract at season's end. And Toronto expects he will opt out, which gives the Blue Jays reason to believe Burnett will be on a mission this season to not only stay healthy, but to also put up impressive numbers that could help him to a huge payday next winter. Maybe expecting a full season of health from Burnett is unwise by the Blue Jays, but if such occurs, both the team and the pitcher could turn out to be big winners.
Joe Nathan
Twins
Minnesota is a franchise that has never tolerated a clubhouse that has issues. Last July, when the team traded second baseman Luis Castillo to the Mets for basically nada and then added no one by the trading deadline, Johan Santana and Torii Hunter publicly questioned management's motives. The team never recovered from getting called out by two of its star players and Santana and Hunter have moved on after witnessing how things were handled last summer. For its part, Twins' management has vowed there will be no repeat of such a scenario.
Nathan, a premier closer, is entering his walk year. His words indicate a wish for a five-year deal, which likely makes him the next Twin heading elsewhere. Hard not to imagine a huge line at the Twins' door bidding for Nathan, who in 2007 had another dominant season, racking up 37 saves while striking out 77 batters in 71 innings pitched and posting a sparkling ERA of 1.88. But when it comes to Nathan, the Twins might prove penny wise and dollar foolish since they have never believed in spending much on closers.
Matt Garza
Rays
Tampa Bay paid a steep price when it traded with Minnesota to obtain Garza on Nov. 28. The Rays parted with Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie to obtain Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan. Young is the crown jewel that the Rays surrendered. Many consider him one of the game's great future stars, but he's had his rough spots (most notably being suspended in 2006 for two months for throwing his bat at an umpire in Triple-A). He can't be considered a finished product yet -- given his performance and conduct on the field. No question though that he has the potential to become a superstar.
But back to Garza. If he develops as many still believe he can, the Rays will have a dynamite top-three in their rotation with Scott Kazmir, Jason Shields, and Garza, who should be able to excel as a mid-rotation starter. He has a fastball that can hit the mid-90s, but also can come at hitters with a hard slider, a solid curve, and an effective change-up. And Garza is the type of player who drives himself to always working to getting better.
Matt Cain
Giants
The next right-hander to emerge as someone in the Nolan Ryan/Roger Clemens mold could be the Giants' right-hander. Yes, that’s heady company, but the stuff is there for the 23-year-old to ripen into a true dominating power pitcher. Last year as Cain suffered an agonizing season of poor run support to finish 7-16, the Giants learned that he has a rock-solid makeup. He's not one to get beaten mentally, and that's a huge plus when looking at his future.
All of what Cain is now and could be in the future is why the Giants entertained thoughts and offers this winter of trading Tim Lincecum -- another of their star pitchers of the future-- but had no real interest in dealing Cain. With an uninspiring team destined to take the field in 2008, the Giants are pinning all their hopes on Cain and Lincecum. Both have a huge upside and the quicker they cash in on that, the better for the Giants.
Rich Harden
Athletics
Oakland is rebuilding and having dealt its top winner from last season Dan Haren (15-9, 3.07 ERA) to the Diamondbacks, the A's now need a healthy Harden as their staff leader. But healthy and Harden are not often found in the same sentence. Take the last couple of seasons as an example. Two years ago, the right-hander was beset by back and elbow injuries. He pitched in only nine games for Oakland -- all of them starts. Last season it was a right shoulder malady that landed Harden on the DL in the first month of the season, and pretty much kept him sidelined the rest of the way. He was limited to seven games, four of them starts.
Harden is 26 and the A's, who drafted him in the 17th round in 2000, have been patient with him. Likely a major reason for that patience is because Harden, when not battling injuries, has the stuff of an ace. He backs up mid-90's heat with other potent weapons such as a good slider and strong change-up. He doesn't tense up in pressure-packed situations and has shown an ability to pitch out of trouble. All of what Harden offers is terrific, but given the state of the A's they can no longer offer him patience. So when it comes to Harden, it's a good bet the waiting game is over as the A's need a return on their investment -- and they need it starting this season.
Troy Glaus
Cardinals
Six years removed from being named the World Series MVP, Glaus is now flirting with broken-down slugger status. A troublesome left foot injury played havoc with his 2007 season and it marked the end of his two-year stint in Toronto. Last year he was limited to 115 games and wound up with 20 home runs and 62 RBIs. Glaus has also had to deal with chronic knee problems. He doesn't hit for average and strikes out a ton, but what keeps him in the majors is his power, which when he is healthy, can be unleashed to the tune of 38 home runs in 2006 and 37 in 2005.
He has a new lease on his baseball life in St. Louis, where he'll play for manager Tony La Russa. He'll be part of a new-look Cardinals' lineup. And new surroundings have become something Glaus has had to deal with quite often in the recent past. He will be with his fourth team in five years. He makes the move to St. Louis just two years from free agency and also after a mention in the Mitchell report for allegedly receiving steroids through the mail in 2003-04. But most of all he heads from Canada to the U.S. Midwest because of the surreal saga of one Scott Rolen, who's next my list.
Scott Rolen
Blue Jays
Rolen had a fabulous situation in St. Louis, where he was adored by fans as a Midwestern baseball hero, and then he saw it disintegrate through a feud with his manager, La Russa. Knocking heads with his skipper is nothing new for the 32-year-old, who clashed with manager Larry Bowa while playing in Philadelphia. That rift didn't bode well for his future in the City of Brotherly Love, and he was dealt to the Cardinals in July of 2002. To be fair, Rolen also played for two other managers with the Phillies -- Jim Fregosi and Terry Francona, and he drew praise from both.
Now he tries to salvage what once seemed to be a Hall-of-Fame career with the Blue Jays, who are managed by John Gibbons whose history shows that he is unafraid to tussle with disgruntled players (Ted Lilly, Shea Hillenbrand). In addition to being able to make nice with Gibbons, Rolen must show he still has the power of earlier in his career -- specifically the kind of pop we last saw from him in 2004 when he smacked 34 home runs for the Cardinals. There is the question of whether shoulder surgery in 2005 sapped that power, and Rolen had his shoulder operated on again last September.
Eric Gagne
Brewers
Dealt by the Rangers to the Red Sox last July, Gagne's performance in a Boston uniform was atrocious. In 18.2 innings, he had a 6.75 ERA. The Gagne in Beantown was nothing like the Gagne in the Lone Star State. While serving as the Rangers' closer, the 32-year-old threw 33.3 innings, picking up 16 saves and posting a sparkling 2.16 ERA. Gagne received a full World Series share and then received notice he was being linked to the use of human growth hormone in the Mitchell Report.
Three days before the Mitchell Report was released, the Brewers signed Gagne to a $10 million one-year deal. The club will honor the contract and will not discipline Gagne, despite the HGH allegations. The right-hander inherits the closer duties from Francisco Cordero, who saved a franchise-record 44 games last season and then cashed in as a free agent, signing a huge contract with the Reds. One thing Gagne still has going for him is his ability to miss bats. He struck out 51 batters in 52 innings last season.
Bill Hall
Brewers
After a breakout year in 2006 when he hit 35 home runs, had 85 RBIs, a .345 on-base percentage and a .553 slugging percentage, Hall had one of the most disappointing seasons in the majors in 2007. He hit just 14 home runs to go along with precipitous dips in his on-base percentage (.315) and slugging percentage (.425). Did Hall's offensive drop-off have anything to do with his shifting from third base to center field? Maybe. One factor Hall says hurt his performance was a knee injury he suffered in July. The numbers appear to bear that out as he hit just .226 with five home runs and 25 RBIs after coming off the DL on July 25.
This season Hall will get a chance to show 2006 was no fluke. He's moving back to third base after Milwaukee signed Mike Cameron as a free agent. That switch should make him more comfortable and let him concentrate fully on regaining his power. Other areas that need work: cutting down on strikeouts and performing better in RBI situations. This may be Hall's last chance in Milwaukee so he'll be out to make the most of it.
