Breaking the Boras code
Posted: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 10:55 AM
Here are the Ten Commandments for following the Alex Rodriguez story:
TENTH: Thou shalt be patient. Scott Boras clients rarely sign early, the Barry Zito-Giants marriage last December was an exception caused by the Giants’ massive overpay. The A-Rod deal probably goes into the New Year.
NINTH: Thou shalt search in vain for a Yankee teammate asking Rodriguez to return. Has there been ONE voice to say that yet? Think Mariano Rivera, the biggest reason for the Yankees’ four rings (four more than A-Rod owns, by the way), enjoyed being tossed into the interstate by one shameless agent.
EIGHTH: Thou shalt expect a Boras client to sign with Texas. How else can Rangers owner Tom Hicks say thank you for the money that came back to him through A-Rod's opt-out?
SEVENTH: Thou shalt forget about the Yankees. How could the proud franchise even entertain signing the man who, through his mouthpiece, so disrespected them? What planet is home to a person who questions the Yankees’ commitment to winning or to retaining their free agents?
SIXTH: Thou shalt ignore any words that link the eventual choice made by Rodriguez to playing in the postseason. A-Rod signed with Texas in 2000 strictly for the money. The Rangers were a team he had no interest in playing for. When he signs this time around it will again be ALL about the money.
FIFTH: Thou shalt remember that baseball is awash in cash. It is the only truth spoken by Boras. The game’s revenues have exploded in this decade. There is no reason the players shouldn’t reap benefits and one team will pay Rodriguez.
FOUR: Thou shalt find no shortage of media types who will be mouthpieces for Boras. He is the best agent at manipulating media, surpassing the previous master, Leigh Steinberg. One key is learning where to go to find out what Boras is thinking and what he wants others to think. This space’s guess: Boras’ blog on SI.com.
THREE: Thou shalt hear nothing from A-Rod. Boras keeps his clients detached from the negotiation process, something that led to one of his few failures, the Barry Bonds negotiations.
TWO: Thou shalt hear everything from Boras. Or through his “outlets.” A Columbia University law professor had an opinion piece printed in the New York Times that offered a patently absurd rationalization for Boras’ decision to leak the opt-out decision during Game 4 of the World Series. I don’t know the professor and would never doubt his credentials, but the piece read as dictation from Boras. Again, the agent is a virtuoso at using the hunger of desperate media types to gain an edge. Sadly for this profession, some fall victim because…
FIRST: Thou shalt believe nothing Boras says. Over the years I have heard countless stories from baseball executives about their Boras experiences. Rather than relate those, I turn to a book I just completed “Feeding the Monster,” Seth Mnookin’s inside tale of the Red Sox in the Henry-Werner years. In there, Mnookin details the blatant lie Boras told the Red Sox in the Johnny Damon negotiations. Boras told John Henry that Damon had a six-year deal on the table. The Red Sox passed and Damon signed with the Yankees for 4 years, just what the Red Sox had offered. Now, I am sure that Boras would strongly protest the word ‘lie,” instead calling it part of negotiations. Well, if it walks like and smells like…you know where there is going. There isn’t an executive in the game who would doubt that story.
And, despite this horrid act in negotiation after negotiation, the same Red Sox signed J.D. Drew after his opt-out and neatly packaged Matsuzaka in a Boras Daily Double.
I am now preparing for an A-Rod-Kyle Lohse package this winter.
Changing topics to player development.
Baseball America magazine, which follows player development more thoroughly than any other media entity, recently picked the top 10 prospects in each minor league. The totals are interesting as 116 of the 160 (72.5 percent) prospects are from the United States. Forty of 50 (80 percent) in Double-A and Triple-A are U.S. born. So despite the perceived influx of Latin players, numbers show baseball is still healthy in the United States.
The Dominican influence is clearly stronger in the low minors. Of the 20 top prospects in low-level rookie ball, six (30 percent) are Dominican. Only four of the top 50 (eight percent) in Double-A and Triple-A are from the Dominican Republic.
College vs. high school? Of the top 50 in Double-A and Triple-A 16 (32 percent) are from four-year colleges while 20 (40 percent) signed out of high school. I would have thought the college numbers to be higher. It tilts more towards the high school signee in high-level Single-A where 18 of 40 (45 percent) are from high school and only six (15 percent) are from college. Obviously, there is some weeding out of “older” players at the lower levels although two short-season leagues (New York-Penn and Appalachian) both had five of their top 10 prospects from college.
Is the Venezuelan presence growing? Not as much as I would have thought. Only three of the 50 Double-A and Triple-a prospects are Venezuelan although Venezuela is better represented in high Single-A with seven of the 40 top prospects (17.5 percent).
Who has these players? Of the Triple-A, Double-A and high Single-A prospects (80 of the 160), there is impressive distribution. Cincinnati, Atlanta and Tampa Bay led the way with six each. Boston, Colorado and the Yankees each had five. Twenty four of the 30 teams had at least one prospect as high as Double-A. Philadelphia, Baltimore and San Francisco added high Single-A rated players while only Oakland, Toronto and Florida were without representation in the top half.
