November 2007 - Posts
There’s something refreshing about the Kerry Wood story. Accounts from Chicago report that the right-hander bypassed several multi-year offers from other teams to stay with the Cubs, where he may become the closer. Wood and the Cubs agreed on a $4.2 million, one-year contract.
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“The free agent market has always been an inefficient market. Now with teams locking up their better players to extensions, it’s become a horribly inefficient market.” Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein told Sports Illustrated.
We are trained to breathlessly follow the free agent trail in a baseball winter. We chart, track, gossip, and scrutinize every movement but now we should be convinced that it’s overrated.
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Three items on the Thanksgiving weekend menu:
WHICH NEW YORK TEAM GETS JOHAN SANTANA? New Minnesota general manager Bill Smith is a bright and pragmatic man. No matter how much both sides want a deal, last year’s Barry Zito contract eliminated any chance of Santana, who can become a free agent after the season, staying in Minnesota by pricing him out of the small market. And the Twins are now in a terrific position with both the Mets and Yankees in extreme need of an ace.
With Tom Glavine signing in Atlanta, the Mets have no one resembling an ace (sorry but it’s hard to look at Pedro Martinez in that way any more). The Yankees, who are awaiting Andy Pettitte’s decision on whether he will retire, learned in October that they have no one resembling Josh Beckett. Soon Smith will let the bidding begin.
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Just wondering about what went down between free agent Yorvit Torrealba and the Mets. They had a deal and suddenly it fell apart at the last minute. So what happened?
The Mets wanted Torrealba as part of a catching combination with Ramon Castro to replace Paul LoDuca. On the surface this seemed strange because Torrealba had shoulder problems in the last two years and his caught-stealing numbers were poor last season. Surely the Mets knew this when they got to the altar with Torrealba. What called off the wedding?
In this era one can’t help but wonder about the Mitchell report on steroid use in baseball, which comes out in December. One can’t help but wonder about the story that some of this offseason's free agents are to be named in the report. It's likely the list of players cited in the report will be leaked and newly signed players may face suspension.
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On the same day that news broke of a framework for a deal between the suddenly repentant A-Rod groveling back to the Yankees certainly against the wishes of his agent, Barry Bonds was indicted. The cloud that hung over Bonds, San Francisco, and the game for three years finally broke.
Why now? That’s the magic question. It can’t be ignored that an indictment in the offseason carries far less risk in the court of public opinion. Had the feds slammed Bonds as he neared the record, the public, and a potential jury pool, could have found the act vindictive. Now Bonds has his record and the public will find it easier to accept the slugger having to answer in a court of law.
What about Bonds’ career? It’s over. No team touches him until the indictment is resolved. Although some legal experts expect this to move fast (and Bonds should be motivated for the same if he is truly innocent), how many trials in our society happen quickly? Bonds would be past his 44th birthday by the time of decision and, if innocent, likely unable to truly contribute to a team.
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Which top free-agent center fielder to sign, Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones?
Both are multiple Gold Glove winners (Jones has won 10, Hunter has won 7). Jones has the better offensive resume with five All-Star appearances and a 51 home run and 128 RBI 2005 season that earned him a second-place finish in that year's NL MVP race. Hunter's best MVP finish was sixth five years ago and he has only two All-Star appearances. Jones is also younger, he'll be 31 in July, while Hunter turns 33 just after Opening Day.
Here's the twist: Jones is coming off a horrid offensive season, his worst as a big leaguer. His OPS of .635 was horrendous and his lack of clutch hitting was startling. In contrast, Hunter posted his best year at the plate with a .782 OPS, 45 doubles and 28 home runs.
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It’s award time in baseball. First winners announced were the Gold Gloves and the angst over these decisions is amusing.
What I don’t get is how there is a movement to make objective choices for Gold Gloves based on a subjective stat. Errors, and thus fielding percentage, are subjective. Despite noble efforts by some in the SABR world, there is no foolproof defensive statistic. Therefore, the vote for Gold Gloves will always be a subjective vote.
A misconception is that writers vote for Gold Gloves. They do not. Managers and coaches do. And they cannot vote for players on their own team.
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Here are the Ten Commandments for following the Alex Rodriguez story:
TENTH: Thou shall be patient. Scott Boras clients rarely sign early, the Barry Zito-Giants marriage last December was an exception caused by the Giants’ massive overpay. The A-Rod deal probably goes into the New Year.
NINTH: Thou shall search in vain for a Yankee teammate asking Rodriguez to return. Has there been ONE voice to say that yet? Think Mariano Rivera, the biggest reason for the Yankees’ four rings (four more than A-Rod owns, by the way), enjoyed being tossed into the interstate by one shameless agent.
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Trades now rule the baseball offseason. Most teams have followed a path of signing potential free agents early, buying out arbitration years in the process, or locking up veterans on the verge of declaring free agency like Curt Schilling, Greg Maddux, and Matt Stairs, who is a bargain sign by the Blue Jays.
The most interesting player movement of this winter -- other than the grotesque A-Rod circus -- will come via trades. First stop is Florida where word is the Marlins will shop Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, a major story one year ago but now greeted by more muted headlines.
As for free agency, there are still some wise deals to be made on the open market. I don’t like many of the multi-year options available so most of these recommendations are for guys who wouldn’t command more than two years.
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Leftover thoughts from, sadly, another short World Series:
Anyone think Jonathan Papelbon goes to spring training as a starter in 2008?
Anyone going to give Terry Francona credit as the next Joe Torre? Here is a man so decent that before this year’s playoffs he made a point to tell a professional acquaintance of his joy for longtime Phillies execs Bill Giles and Dave Montgomery on the Phils’ shocking division title. This was the franchise that fired Francona after the manager took the heat for an organization that was committed to the chase of a new ballpark over winning a pennant. Francona wasn’t Larry Bowa and still the man holds no bitterness.
In case anyone is counting it's two World Series winners for Francona. That equals Tony La Russa and is one more than Jim Leyland and Bobby Cox. Suddenly, Joe Torre’s four in a row look pretty good.
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