Zito and Giants proving a mediocre match
Posted: Saturday, July 14, 2007 12:51 PM
The Giants are hosting the Dodgers, their archrivals this weekend in a series the San Francisco Chronicle breathlessly and irrationally calls a “make-or-break” weekend. The Giants dropped the opener 9-1 on Friday night, and lose the series, goes the story, and the Giants descend into full-scale rebuilding mode, something unseen in San Francisco for nearly 20 years.
So here’s what you need to know about how Barry Zito’s first half of the season went with San Francisco: The so handsomely paid lefthander isn't even pitching in the series against the Dodgers. Matt Cain (3-10) took the ball and the loss on Friday. It's Matt Morris (7-5) getting the call on Saturday, and Noah Lowry (9-6) with the nod on Sunday.
This is what the Giants' seven-year, $126-million investment in Zito buys? That he sits instead of pitches with a season on the brink.
Yes, I know the money reference is unfair. It’s also reality. The Giants bought AND sold to their fans a staff leader for close to the next decade. Zito (6-9) has star power, but at present he's not the team's leader. A pair of 22-year-olds are splitting that role. One is Cain, who has handled a workload worthy of note and perhaps concern (over 110 pitches in eight of his last ten starts). For more on the potential trouble that can come about when young pitchers fire away with virtual abandon in start after start, consult the recent New York Times magazine story by Buzz Bissinger on the pitch counts of Kerry Wood. How's Wood faring these days?
Far be it from this space to pile on, but the warning signs evident this winter and duly noted at the time of Zito's signing have worsened in the first half of his first season in the City by the Bay. Zito's WHIP -- a true barometer of a pitcher’s long-term success -- is at a career-worst 1.45, up from 1.13 in his Cy Young year of 2001. And his walk-to-strikeout ratio, which has worsened each year of his career, is at a low (1-to-1.2 compared to 1-to-2.5 in 2001). For those who are not numbers-inclined, these stats mean Zito is simply putting too many runners on base and is less capable of pitching out of trouble with a strikeout. Combine that with an aging team that is -- in the most generous of evaluations -- average defensively and the recipe for mediocrity is complete.
Zito said he took the All-Star break to clear his head and refresh himself in Southern California. Talk was a session with his dad was also part of the plan. What Zito seems to need is a session with a pitching doctor, someone who can work with his strengths, namely a still-vicious curveball, and manufacture a plan for second-half success.
Zito's 2006 playoff duel with Johan Santana made him a ton of money last winter on the free-agent market. To these eyes, Zito was helped by an aggressive group of Twins' hitters who chased fastballs thus leaving themselves vulnerable to curves and changeups.
Zito is struggling against NL lineups even in a pitcher-friendly home ballpark. There have been unsettling signs of Zito willing to mention defensive lapses behind him as a cause for his woes. Therein lies one major Giants' problem -- Zito has the look of a contact pitcher, one who needs his teammates to play sound defense for him to thrive. And the Giants, staring at a third consecutive losing season with no young position-player prospects on the horizon, may be a bad match for Zito’s talents.
